Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
Hamid Faruqee, and Krishna Srinivasan
Published Date:
August 2013
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Index

[Page numbers followed by b, f, n, or t refer to boxed text, figures, footnotes, or tables, respectively.]

A

Advanced economies

  • need for medium-term consolidation in, 150
  • policy implications from case studies for, 149, 150
  • significance of current account imbalances in, 7–8
  • structural reform needs of, 150–151

B

Basel III requirements, 52, 69, 117

Borrowing, private

  • constraints to, in China, 101
  • disincentives and constraints to, in India, 81–82, 85, 86
  • imbalances in the United Kingdom and, 42, 47
  • imbalances in the United States and, 24, 25
  • patterns in the United Kingdom, 43, 43f, 44–45, 47, 50

C

China, external surpluses in

  • causes of, 93, 96f, 97–101, 148–149
  • credit access and, 101
  • development of, 93–96, 94f
  • domestic consumption and, 95, 97b, 106
  • exchange rate policy and, 102, 102f, 103f, 106
  • factor market distortions and, 99, 107
  • financial sector reform for addressing, 154–155
  • foreign exchange reserves and, 102–103, 103f
  • future prospects for, 96–97
  • interest rate policy and, 100, 101, 104, 104f
  • investment patterns and, 95–96, 99f, 100
  • labor market and, 94, 94n, 99, 101, 107
  • manufacturing sector growth and, 98
  • policy response to, 102–105
  • poverty rate and, 96
  • private saving and, 93–95, 94f, 98–101, 99f, 105f
  • public saving and, 93, 94f, 104, 148–149
  • rationale for rebalancing, 105
  • reform of state-owned enterprises and, 97–98, 99–100, 101
  • social welfare programs and, 101, 106
  • sterilization of foreign exchange and, 102–104
  • strategies for rebalancing, 93, 97b, 106–107, 150, 151, 154–155, 154b
  • sustainability assessment, 5–6b

Collective action, 150–158

policy action to achieve G20 growth objectives, 150–151

Consumption

  • in China, 95, 97b, 106
  • in India, 84, 84f
  • recommendations for Japanese tax on, 142
  • in the United Kingdom, 39, 42, 43f, 46
  • in the United States, 21, 24, 29

Cross-border spillovers

  • benefits of rebalancing in China, 107
  • benefits of rebalancing in Germany, 123
  • global implications of U.K. imbalances, 50–51, 54
  • global significance of U.S. economy, 32–33, 36
  • from imbalances in France, 67, 68
  • from individual current account deficits, 11
  • from individual current account surpluses, 12–14
  • macroeconomic model of, 16–18
  • risk from Japan, 140, 142
  • risk surveillance, 11, 14–15
  • threats from export-led growth strategy, 12

Current account balances

  • assessment methodology, 8
  • beneficial imbalances, 7
  • case studies, 8, 147, 148f. See also specific country
  • detrimental imbalances, 7
  • future challenges for G20, 158–159
  • global significance of, 7–8
  • multilateral surveillance rationale, 14–15
  • policy implications from case studies, 149–158
  • saving imbalances as cause of, 147, 148f
  • simulated gains from upside scenario, 155–158, 156f, 157f, 158f
  • as source of global financial crisis, 3, 7n
  • strategy for sustainable recovery, 3, 6, 21
  • sustainability assessments, 4–6
  • systemic risk, 6–7
  • trends, 4, 4f
  • See also Deficits, current account; Internal imbalances; Surpluses, current account

D

Defense spending, U.S. deficits and, 22, 23b, 26

Deficits, current account

  • causes of, in case study countries, 147–148
  • causes of, in France, 57, 62–67, 148
  • causes of, in Japan, 125, 126
  • causes of, in the United Kingdom, 39–41
  • causes of, in the United States, 21, 23b, 24, 28–31, 148
  • development in France, 57, 58–59
  • development in the United States, 21, 22–25, 22f
  • in Germany, 109
  • multilateral implications, 11
  • policy implications from case studies, 149, 159
  • positive and negative sources, 9–10
  • projections for the United Kingdom, 39–40
  • saving imbalances as cause of, 147
  • significance of France’s, 67
  • strategies for addressing imbalances in the United States, 33–36

Demographic patterns and trends

  • employment ratios, 71f
  • entitlement spending in the United States and, 27
  • implications for current account policymaking, 7
  • in India, 85
  • in Japan, 126, 130–131
  • private saving in Germany and, 117

Dot-com bubble, 23b

E

Economic growth

  • in China, 93–97, 96f
  • in Germany, 109–112, 118–119
  • global significance of U.S. performance, 32–33
  • in India, 73, 74f, 85–86
  • in Japan, 125, 128–132, 129f, 130f
  • strategies for sustainable recovery, 3
  • in the United Kingdom before financial crisis, 39–40, 40f
  • U.S. policies to restore, 21

Emerging market economies

  • French export competitiveness and, 64
  • future growth in, 158–159
  • German export competitiveness and, 120
  • government revenues in, 80, 80f
  • policy implications from case studies for, 149
  • saving imbalances in, 148, 149, 151, 162–163
  • significance of current account imbalances in, 7–8
  • social indicators in, 78t
  • U.S. imbalances and dollar pegs in, 30–31

Entitlement spending

  • in Japan, 133
  • strategies for improving U.S. economy, 34, 35
  • trends in the United States, 27–28, 34, 35
  • upside scenario policy reforms for G20 countries, 152
  • See also Health care spending; Pension programs; Social assistance programs; Social security spending

Euro area

  • employment patterns in, 71f
  • France’s entry into, 58–59
  • France’s export market share, 63, 64
  • significance of France’s imbalances for, 67
  • significance of German economy for, 119
  • significance of imbalances in, 8

Exchange rate

  • China’s, 97, 102, 102f, 103f, 106, 154b
  • France’s, 65f, 69–70
  • Germany’s, 113–114
  • model of cross-border effects of, 16–18
  • undervalued, 12
  • U.S. external imbalances and, 30, 31

Export-led growth

  • definition, 10
  • multilateral risk, 12
  • as source of surpluses, 10

F

Financial sector

  • benefits of rebalancing for China’s reform of, 105
  • causes of financial crisis, 29–30
  • causes of imbalances in the United Kingdom, 39, 42, 50
  • future prospects in the United Kingdom, 46
  • growth in the United Kingdom, 48–49
  • liquidity requirements in India, 81, 89
  • liquidity requirements in the United Kingdom, 52–53
  • recommendations for reform of China’s, 106
  • recommendations for reform of Germany’s, 120, 121
  • strategies for addressing India’s imbalances, 89
  • strategies for addressing U.K. imbalances, 52–54
  • strategies for improving U.S. economy, 34–35
  • upside scenario policy reforms for G20 countries, 152–153
  • See also Regulation, financial

Fiscal imbalances. See Internal imbalances

Fiscal stimulus

  • China’s response to financial crisis, 96f
  • Japan’s spending, 131–132
  • outcomes in France, 61
  • outcomes in Germany, 118
  • outcomes in the United Kingdom, 45
  • U.S. response to financial crisis, 27

France

  • causes of imbalances in, 57, 60–67, 148
  • composition of current account balances in, 58f
  • development of imbalances in, 57–59
  • entitlement and social welfare spending in, 59–61, 69
  • exchange rate patterns, 65f
  • export competitiveness, 62–64, 69–71
  • financial crisis outcomes in, 59
  • labor market, 63–64, 65–67, 66f, 70, 154b
  • Organic Law, 69
  • private saving–investment balance, 57, 58f, 59f
  • productivity issues, 63, 64f, 69–70, 72, 154b
  • projected balances, 59–60
  • public debt in, 57, 59, 60f, 61, 62f, 67
  • public saving–investment balance, 57, 59f
  • regulatory reforms, 69–70
  • significance of imbalances in, 67
  • strategies for addressing imbalances in, 57, 59–60, 68–72, 149
  • sustainability assessment, 5–6b
  • tax reforms, 70–71, 71

G

Germany

  • causes of external surpluses in, 109, 112–117, 149
  • current account projections for, 112
  • effects of reunification, 109, 110–111, 118
  • exchange rate, 113–114, 115
  • financial crisis outcomes in, 112, 118
  • financial sector, 120
  • fiscal imbalances in, 118
  • impediments to saving in, 116–117
  • labor market, 111, 112–113, 120, 123
  • manufacturing exports, 113, 113f
  • population aging in, 117
  • private domestic investment in, 109, 111–112, 111f, 115–116, 118–119, 119f
  • private saving in, 109, 112, 115, 116–117
  • productivity issues in, 116, 118, 119, 120, 121, 154b
  • public debt in, 109, 112, 118, 119, 122
  • public saving in, 116
  • rationale for addressing imbalances in, 118–119
  • recent economic performance, 109–112, 110f
  • strategies for addressing imbalances in, 109, 119–123, 150
  • sustainability assessment, 5–6b
  • tax policy, 111, 120, 122, 123, 123n
  • venture capital market, 115, 116f, 120
  • wages, 109, 110, 111, 112–114, 114f, 118, 120
  • women in workforce, 120, 152, 154b
  • work rule reforms, 110–111

Global financial crisis

  • causes of, 7n, 13–14, 25, 29–30, 29n
  • Group of Twenty response, 3
  • outcomes in France, 59
  • outcomes in Germany, 112, 118
  • outcomes in Japan, 127
  • outcomes in the United States, 25, 27
  • precrisis analysis of imbalances, 11
  • recovery status, 4
  • significance of current account balances in recovery from, 3, 7–8

Group of Twenty, 3

  • assessment of key imbalances in, 4–6
  • collective action to achieve growth objectives of, 150–158
  • future policymaking challenges, 159
  • Mutual Assessment Process, 3, 4–6, 159
  • national saving and investment patterns, 42f
  • public debt, 126f
  • revenue collection, 80, 80f
  • structural reform needs, 152, 153–154b
  • tax and entitlement reform recommendations, 152
  • See also specific country

H

Health care spending

  • fiscal imbalances in the United States and, 23b, 27
  • in France, 69
  • in India, 89
  • life expectancy in the United States and, 27f
  • recommendations for China, 106
  • strategies for improving U.S. economy, 34
  • in the United Kingdom, 41

Housing bubble

  • U.K., 39, 43–45, 47–48, 148
  • U.S., 7n, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30

I

Incomes, household

  • in China, 93–94, 95f, 105
  • French household saving and, 76
  • in India, 84, 84f
  • in Japan, 133, 134
  • in U.K., 42, 43f, 44, 46
  • U.S. household saving and, 36

India

  • balance of payments crisis (1991), 73
  • bond market, 89
  • causes of imbalances in, 73, 77–85, 148
  • credit access in, 85, 86
  • demographic trends in, 85
  • financial controls in, 81–84, 89, 90
  • Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 74–75
  • future challenges for, 77
  • government securities, 81, 83, 83t, 84n
  • health care spending, 89
  • infrastructure investment, 86
  • labor market, 154b
  • macroeconomic stability, 87
  • private saving and investment in, 73, 75–77, 76f, 82f, 83f, 84–85
  • public debt, 73, 73f, 74–75, 77, 86–87
  • public saving and investment in, 75, 76f
  • public spending in, 78–79, 88–89
  • recent economic performance, 73–77, 74f
  • revenue collection, 78, 79–81, 87–88, 90
  • significance of fiscal imbalances in, 85–87
  • size of deficits, 73
  • social indicators, 78, 78t, 79
  • strategies for addressing imbalances in, 87–90
  • subsidy programs, 88
  • sustainability assessment, 5–6b

Indicative guidelines for sustainability assessments, 4–6, 5–6b, 5f

Interest rates

  • in China, 100, 101, 104, 104f
  • future prospects for the United States, 31, 33
  • global financial crisis and, 29n
  • global spillovers of rebalancing in China, 107
  • India’s, 81–82, 83–84
  • model of cross-border effects, 16–18
  • saving behavior and, 47
  • as source of global imbalances, 13–14
  • in the United Kingdom, 47, 50
  • in the United States, 24, 25, 29, 31, 33

Internal imbalances

  • causes of, in France, 60–61
  • causes of, in India, 73, 77–85
  • causes of, in the United States, 22, 23, 23b, 26–28
  • development in India, 73, 74–75
  • development in the United States, 21, 22f, 25
  • future challenges for the United States, 27–28
  • future prospects for France, 59–60
  • in Germany, 118
  • outcomes of global financial crisis in the United States, 27
  • patterns in France, 58–59
  • significance of France’s, 67
  • significance of India’s, 85–87
  • strategy for sustainable recovery, 3, 6, 21
  • trends, 4

International Monetary Fund

  • assessment of key imbalances in G20 countries, 4–6
  • exchange rate policy obligations, 12n

Investment, private

  • as cause of imbalances in case studies, 148, 149
  • in China, 95–96, 96–97, 100
  • in France, 57, 58f, 59f
  • in Germany, 109, 111–112, 111f, 115–116, 118–119, 119f
  • impediments to, 115–117, 129
  • in India, 75–76, 86
  • in Japan, 127, 129, 131
  • in the United Kingdom, 40f, 41, 42, 42f, 46
  • in the United States, 24

Investment, public

  • in France, 59f
  • in India, 75
  • in Japan, 127–128

J

Japan

  • causes of fiscal deficits, 125, 126, 128–138, 147, 148
  • demographic trends, 126, 130–131
  • distribution of government spending, 134f, 141–142
  • earthquake (2011), 127
  • external surpluses, 127, 149
  • financial crisis outcomes, 127
  • Fiscal Management Strategy, 141
  • government bond market, 137–138, 138f, 139, 140
  • household income, 133, 134
  • investment patterns in, 127, 129, 131
  • labor market, 130–131, 130f, 136, 141, 154b
  • monetary policy, 131–132
  • nonfinancial corporate saving, 136–137, 136f
  • pension program, 142
  • private saving, 125, 128, 134–137, 135f
  • productivity trends, 129, 154b
  • projected imbalances, 128, 132
  • public debt, 125, 132f, 139–140, 139f
  • rationale for addressing imbalances in, 125, 138–140
  • recent economic performance, 125, 126f, 130f
  • relationship between household and corporate saving, 135b
  • risk of global spillover effects of imbalances in, 140, 142
  • services sector, 129, 131, 141
  • small- and medium-sized firms, 131, 141
  • social welfare and entitlement spending, 133, 134f, 142
  • state-owned financial institutions, 138
  • strategies for addressing imbalances in, 125, 140–142, 149, 150
  • sustainability assessment, 5–6b
  • tax policy and collection, 132–133, 133t, 136–137, 141–142
  • wages, 136
  • women in workforce, 141, 152, 154b

L

Labor markets

  • China’s, 94, 94n, 99, 101, 107
  • France’s export competitiveness and, 63–64, 65–67, 70, 154b
  • German, 109, 110, 111, 112–114, 114f, 120, 123
  • India’s, 154b
  • international comparison of demographic patterns, 71fJapan’s, 130–131, 130f, 136, 141, 154b
  • recommended reforms for France, 70, 72
  • strategies for improving U.S. economy, 34
  • tax percentage of labor costs, 121f
  • U.K., 154b
  • upside scenario policy reforms for G20 countries, 152, 153–154b
  • U.S., 34, 154b
  • women’s participation in, 71t, 120, 141, 152, 154b
  • See also Productivity

Liquidity trap, 7, 13, 14, 15, 16–18, 107

M

Monetary policy

  • sources of Japan’s slow growth, 131–132
  • strategies for addressing U.K. imbalances, 51–52
  • U.S., global financial crisis and, 29n

Mutual Assessment Process, 159

  • indicative guidelines, 4–6, 5–6b, 5f
  • objectives, 3
  • origins, 3

O

Oil market, U.S. external imbalances and, 31

Originate-to-distribute lending, 29

P

Pension programs

  • in China, 101
  • in France, 59–60, 69
  • in Japan, 142
  • in the United Kingdom, 51
  • upside scenario policy reforms for G20 countries, 152
  • in the United States, 27–28

Pittsburgh Summit, 3

Policymaking

  • beneficial current account imbalances, 7
  • China’s response to rising saving, 102–105
  • detrimental current account imbalances, 7
  • export-led growth, 12
  • future challenges for G20 countries, 159
  • future challenges for the United States, 31–33
  • lessons from case studies, 149–158, 159
  • multilateral surveillance rationale, 14–15
  • shortcomings of U.S. fiscal rules, 28
  • sources of China’s economic growth, 97–98, 99–100
  • sources of U.S. twin deficit, 22–25
  • strategies for addressing China’s imbalances, 93, 97b, 106–107
  • strategies for addressing France’s imbalances, 59–60
  • strategies for addressing Germany’s imbalances, 109, 119–123
  • strategies for addressing India’s imbalances, 87–90
  • strategies for addressing Japan’s imbalances, 140–142
  • strategies for addressing U.K. imbalances, 51–54
  • strategies for improving U.S. economy, 33–36
  • U.K. response to financial crisis, 45–46
  • upside scenario, 150, 151–155

Political functioning

  • obstacles to fiscal rebalancing in the United States, 28
  • public spending in India and, 77, 78–79

Poverty in China, 96

Privatization, of China’s housing stock, 101

Productivity

  • in China, 103f, 154b
  • in France, 63, 64f, 69–70, 72, 154b
  • in Germany, 116, 118, 119, 120, 121, 154b
  • in India, 154b
  • in Japan, 129, 141, 154b
  • in the United Kingdom, 42
  • upside scenario policy reforms for G20 countries, 152, 154b

Product markets

  • regulation in OECD countries, 66f
  • rigidities in France, 65–67, 70, 72
  • upside scenario of policy reforms, 152, 153–154b

Public debt

  • in France, 57, 59, 60f, 61, 62f, 67, 68–69
  • in Germany, 109, 112, 118, 119, 122
  • in India, 73, 73f, 74–75, 77, 78–84, 86–87
  • in Japan, 125, 132f, 139–140, 139f
  • U.K. strategies to reduce, 48
  • in the United Kingdom, 45–46, 45f, 48–49
  • in the United States, 27, 28, 31, 32f, 33

R

Regulation, business

  • corporate saving in Germany and, 116–117
  • in France, 70
  • recommendations for Japan, 141
  • recommendations for rebalancing China’s surplus, 107
  • upside scenario product market reforms for G20 countries, 154b

Regulation, financial

  • as cause of current account imbalances, 148
  • in development of U.K. imbalances, 50
  • in France, 69–70
  • in India, 81–84, 85–86, 86n, 90
  • strategies for addressing U.K. imbalances, 52–54
  • in the United States, 21, 24, 29–30, 34–35

S

Saving, private

  • as cause of current account deficits, 147, 148
  • in China, 93–95, 94f, 96–97, 98–101, 99f, 100f, 105f
  • corporate veil theory, 135b
  • in France, 57, 58f, 59f
  • in G20 countries, 42f
  • in Germany, 109, 112, 115, 116–117
  • in India, 73, 75–77, 76f, 83f, 84–85
  • in Japan, 125, 128, 134–137, 135f, 136f
  • sources of detrimental imbalances, 7
  • in the United Kingdom, 39, 40f, 41–42, 41f, 42f, 44–45, 46–48
  • in the United States, 24, 25, 28, 32, 36

Saving, public

  • causes of current account surpluses, 147
  • in China, 93–94, 94f, 104, 148–149
  • cross-border policy effects, 13–14
  • in France, 57, 59f
  • in Germany, 116
  • in India, 75
  • in Japan, 128
  • model of cross-border policy effects, 16–18
  • sources of detrimental imbalances, 7
  • strategies for addressing external imbalances, 147–148
  • in the United Kingdom, 40–41, 40f, 41f, 45–46, 51
  • in the United States, 21, 22f, 24, 36

Seoul summit, 3

Social assistance programs

  • in China, 101, 106
  • in India, 78, 79, 88–89
  • See also Entitlement spending

Social security spending

  • in France, 57, 59, 60–61
  • in Japan, 126, 133, 134f
  • in the United States, 23b, 27–28, 34

Stability and Growth Pact, 59, 109, 118

State-owned enterprises

  • Japanese saving and insurance institutions, 138
  • recommendations for China’s, 107
  • sources of China’s economic growth, 97–98, 99–100, 101

Subsidies

  • China’s factor market distortions, 99, 107
  • India’s, 88

Surpluses, current account

  • causes of Germany’s, 112–118
  • in export-led growth strategy, 12
  • influences on public saving behavior and, 147–148
  • in Japan, 127, 127f
  • model of spillover effects, 16–18
  • multilateral implications, 11, 12–14
  • multilateral surveillance rationale, 15
  • patterns and trends in Germany, 109–112, 110f
  • policy implications from case studies, 149, 150, 159
  • positive and negative sources, 10, 12
  • in recent German history, 109–112, 110f
  • saving imbalances as cause of, 147
  • as source of global financial crisis, 13–14
  • strategies for reducing Germany’s, 119–123
  • structural reform needs in advanced economies, 150–151
  • See also China, external surpluses in

Surveillance

  • rationale, 14–15
  • risk indicators, 11

T

Tax policy and collection

  • in France, 70–71, 71
  • in Germany, 111, 121f, 122f
  • in India, 78, 79–81, 87–88, 90
  • international comparison, 80f
  • in Japan, 132–133, 133t, 136–137, 141–142
  • strategies for addressing Germany’s imbalances, 120, 122, 123, 123n
  • strategies for improving U.S. economy, 34, 35
  • in the United Kingdom, 48–49, 49f, 52
  • upside scenario policy reforms for G20 countries, 152, 153b
  • in the United States, 22, 23b, 26, 26n, 27, 34, 35

U

U.K. See United Kingdom

United Kingdom (U.K.)

  • causes of imbalances in, 39, 46–50, 148
  • credit conditions, 47, 50
  • development of imbalances in, 39–45
  • Financial Policy Committee, 52, 53
  • financial sector, 48–49, 50, 52–53
  • future prospects, 45–46, 50
  • global implications of imbalances in, 50–51, 54
  • household wealth and debt trends, 43–45, 43f, 44f
  • interest rates, 47, 50
  • monetary policy, 51–52
  • policy responses to financial crisis, 45–46
  • private consumption in, 39, 42, 43f, 46
  • private investment in, 40f, 41, 42, 42f, 46
  • private saving in, 39, 40f, 41f, 42f 41–42, 44–45, 46–48
  • productivity issues, 42
  • public debt, 45–46, 45f, 48–49
  • public saving in, 40–41, 40f, 41f, 45–46, 51
  • rationale for addressing imbalances in, 50
  • strategies for addressing imbalances in, 39, 51–54, 149
  • sustainability assessment, 5–6b
  • tax policy and collections, 48–49, 49f, 52

United States (U.S.)

  • causes of external imbalances, 21, 28–31, 148
  • causes of internal imbalances, 23b, 26–28
  • defense spending, 22, 23b, 26
  • development of deficits in, 21–25, 22f
  • exchange rates, 30, 31
  • financial regulation in, 21, 24, 29–30, 34–35
  • foreign investment in, 24, 25f, 26f, 30–31, 30f, 32
  • future challenges, 21, 32–33
  • global significance of economy of, 32–33
  • home equity extractions preceding financial crisis, 24, 24f
  • housing boom, 7n, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • interest rates, 24, 25, 29, 31, 33
  • labor market, 34, 154b
  • national saving and investment, 21, 22f, 24, 36
  • onset and effects of financial crisis, 25, 27, 29
  • PAYGO rule, 28, 28n
  • private consumption in, 21
  • private investment in, 24
  • private saving in, 24, 25, 28, 32, 36
  • public debt, 27, 28, 31, 32f, 33
  • rationale for addressing imbalances in, 31
  • rebalancing strategies, 21, 33–36, 149
  • social welfare and entitlement spending, 23b, 27–28, 34, 35
  • sustainability assessment, 5–6b
  • tax policy and collection, 22, 23b, 26, 26n, 27, 34, 35

Upside scenario

  • policy reforms under, 150–155
  • simulated gains from, 155–158, 156f, 157f

U.S. See United States

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