Information about Sub-Saharan Africa África subsahariana
Journal Issue
Share
Article

Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper- GPRSP 2012-2017

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Published Date:
May 2013
Share
  • ShareShare
Information about Sub-Saharan Africa África subsahariana
Show Summary Details

Introduction

1. The 2012-2017 budgetary framework has been developed from the macroeconomic assumptions of an average real economic growth rate of 6.1 percent and an average inflation rate of 2.2 percent.

2. The overall fiscal policy objective during the period covered by the GPRSP is to strengthen macroeconomic stability, an important element in the fight against poverty, with an average basic fiscal balance (excluding HIPC) of about 0.5 percent of GDP and an average overall balance of -6.3 percent. The level of typical budgetary balances, especially the basic fiscal balance excluding HIPC indicates the Government’s commitment to control the budget deficit and to respect its community commitments within the framework of the WAEMU and ECOWAS stability and convergence pact.

3. To achieve this goal, it is intended, firstly, to increase the tax burden and, secondly, to control expenditure trends.

4. The average tax ratio will stand at 17 percent in the GPRSP period, representing an increase of fiscal revenue of 12.8 percent compared to 10.7 percent in the period 2007-2011, or an average annual increase of 193.4 billion compared to 121.1 billion FCFA for the past trend.

5. Total expenditure and net loans will grow on average by 10.2 percent against 10.4 percent for the past trend.

6. The wage policy was maintained with the renewal of: (i) recruitment goals whose annual financial impact is estimated at about 9.9 billion FCFA, of which 6.8 billion for education contract workers and 3.1 billion for other workers, and (ii) taking into account of advancements. To this should be added the impact of the revision of the salary scale and the increase in the retirement age for certain categories of State agents.

7. Concerning current expenditures, emphasis was laid on strengthening the social sector (education, health, social development). The agricultural input subsidy policy will be pursued alongside the support to enterprises in difficulties (EDM-SA, CMSS).

8. As for capital expenses, they will be oriented primarily towards domains that contribute to accelerated growth.

9. This document has three (3) parts:

- the first part deals with the macroeconomic framework;

- the second gives details of revenue planning, expenditures, the deficit and its financing method over the period 2012-2017;

- the third deals with sector-specific allowances.

1. Macroeconomic Context

1.1. Recent developments of the macroeconomic situation from 2007 to 2011

10. The period 2007-2011 was marked by three major occurrences: (i) an increase in the prices of petroleum products and certain commodities, (ii) the financial turmoil related to the US subprime crisis that extended to financial markets in other parts of the world, and (iii) the sovereign debt crisis in European countries. This led to a slowdown or often a recession in global economic growth. Nevertheless, in 2010, economic activity evolved within an international environment marked by continued recovery, in spite of signs of slowing down.

11. The evolution of global GDP in the last five years was as follows:

200720082009201020111
4.9%1.5%−0.5%5.1%4.3%

12. In sub-Saharan Africa, the global financial crisis had significant negative repercussions on economic performance. GDP, which stood at 6.6 percent in 2007, was 1.7 percent in 2009 and 5 percent in 2010. The region is beginning to recover from the crisis and the expansion rate of its economy is only second to that of the developing countries of Asia. The gap between production and potential is being bridged in many countries, with the exception of South Africa. Projections suggest a growth rate of 5.5 percent in 2011.

13. In the main client countries of the WAEMU member States, economic growth in 2010 varied from one country to another. Indeed, the growth rate reached 1.7 percent in France. In the United States, recent data indicate an economic growth rate of 2.8 percent. In the Netherlands, economic growth stood at 1.8 percent. In South Africa and Nigeria, the latest available data indicate economic growth rates of 2.8 percent and 7.4 percent respectively.

14. In the WAEMU countries, economic activity was affected by the socio-political crisis in Côte d’Ivoire and the major disruptions of production activities caused mainly by the significant decline in cotton production and electric power supply difficulties in most of the member States of the Union. To these are added the inflationary pressures caused by the prices of imported foodstuff (oils, rice, wheat, dairy products…) and petroleum products. Thus, the economic growth rate dropped from 3.3 percent in 2007 to 1.4 percent in 2011.

15. Within this generally less favorable context, domestic production was able to resist and the average growth recorded in Mali during the period 2007-2011 stood at 5.3 percent. This performance fell below the target of 7 percent for the 2007-2011 GPRSP, but it was above the average growth of the WAEMU zone (3.7 percent).

16. Concerning market price trends, inflation following the 2007–2008 episode remained within normal proportions in most countries of the world due to the fall in demand. In WAEMU countries, inflation remained at a relatively low level in 2010; indeed, the inflation rate settled at 1.2 percent. For 2011, the rate would be about 3.5 percent.

17. Concerning public finances, the recent economic crisis adversely affected the public finances of many countries. Vast economic recovery plans, buyouts of banks, increase in social spending and the fall of fiscal revenue weighed heavily on the budgets of States. Some countries already witnessed significant deficits before the crisis. At the end of 2010, the overall budget deficit of OECD countries stood at 9 percent of GDP. Forecasts put the public debt of advanced countries at about 100 percent of GDP by the end of 2010 (its highest level in the last fifty years). For African countries South of the Sahara, the anticyclical orientation of public finance policies helped to sustain output growth during the crisis, but it also led to a generalized deepening of budget deficits.

18. In Mali, the fiscal policy has been restrictive, even though the fiscal balance stood on average at 0.5 percent of GDP against 0.4 percent planned for the GPRSP II period.

Table 1:Evolution of the international macroeconomic situation
GDPInflation
20072008200920102007200820092010
Advanced countries2.70.2−3.43.02.32.00.11.6
Emerging and developing countries8.86.12.77.36.59.25.26.3
African countries South of the Sahara7.25.62.85.06.911.710.57.5
Source: IMF (Economic Outlook, April 2011)
Source: IMF (Economic Outlook, April 2011)
Table 2:Evolution of the macroeconomic situation of WAEMU countries
Real GDP in %Inflation in %
20072008200920102007200820092010
WAEMU3.34.12.84.62.47.41.11.4
Benin4.652.73.51.37.92.22.1
Burkina-Faso3.65.23.25.5−0.210.72.6−0.6
Côte d’Ivoire1.62.33.831.96.311.8
Guinea-Bissau2.83.233.54.610.4−1.62.2
Mali4.354.55.81.49.22.21.2
Niger3.49.3−1.25.80.111.34.30.9
Senegal4.93.22.245.95.8−11.2
Togo2.12.43.23.41.08.71.91.4
Source: WAEMU
Source: WAEMU
Table 3:Evolution of the macroeconomic situation in the major WAEMU client countries
Real GDP in %Inflation in %
20072008200920102007200820092010
United States1.90.0−2.62.82.73.8−0.31.6
France2.30.1−2.51.71.63.20.11.7
Netherlands3.91.9−3.91.81.62.21.00.9
South Africa5.63.6−1.72.87.111.57.14.3
Nigeria7.06.07.08.45.411.612.513.7
Source: IMF (Economic Outlook, April 2011)
Source: IMF (Economic Outlook, April 2011)

1.2. 2012-2017 macroeconomic targets and budget projection assumptions

1.2.1. Economic growth

19. Based on the assumptions of the optimistic scenario of the macroeconomic framework, the expected average growth rate will be 6.1 percent over the period 2012-2017 against 4.9 percent achieved between 2007 and 2010. This growth target will be reached thanks to the revival of public and private investments, the improvement of their effectiveness, the continuation of structural reforms and the implementation of a sound and prudent fiscal policy.

Table 4:2012-2017 projection of the growth rate of the Malian economy
Av. 2007-

2010
2011201220132014201520162017Av. 2012-

2017
Nominal GDP (FCFA4 0535 10855 9196 3916 93678 330
billions)495,95906776.95
Real GDP growth rate4.90%5.30%5.5%5.6%5.8%6.2%6.7%7.0%6.1%

1.2.2. Goals of the 2012-2017 fiscal policy

20. The government will pursue a sustainable fiscal policy conducive to economic growth and which falls within the framework of the implementation of the WAEMU and ECOWAS convergence criteria.

21. During the period 2012-2017, the basic fiscal balance (excluding HIPC) given as a percentage of GDP, would stabilize on average at 0.5 percent and the overall fiscal balance (including grants) would settle at about −3.0 percent of GDP, compared to −0.4 percent and −3.4 percent in 2011 respectively.

22. These objectives will be underpinned in the medium-term by activities envisaged in the Government’s Action Program on the Improvement and Modernization of the Management of Public Funds (PGMGFP) and the implementation of the new harmonized framework for the management of public finances of WAEMU, aimed at improving the preparation and execution of budgets.

Table 5:Projection of the 2012-2017 fiscal balance
Av.2007-

2011
2011201220132014201520162017Av.

2012-2017
Overall balance (commitment base) including grants (%GDP)−3.4%−4.8%−3.9%−3.1%−3.1%−2.7%−2.7%−2.6%−3.0%
Overall balance (commitment base) excluding grants (%GDP)−7.7%−9.9%−6.8%−6.9%−6.7%−6.2%−5.8%−5.5%−6.3%
Basic fiscal balance (%GDP)−0.7%−1.7%−0.6%0.2%0.3%0.6%0.6%0.7%0.3%
Basic fiscal balance excluding HIPC (in % GDP)−0.4%−1.5%−0.4%0.4%0.5%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.5%

Figure 1:Fiscal balance trends

a. Increasing the tax burden

23. The WAEMU convergence program, put into effect in the national fiscal transition program, requires States to achieve a tax ratio of 17 percent of GDP in 2013, a new convergence horizon of the economies of the Union. This target was retained for the macro budgetary framework, though using only the net values (without VAT credit refunds), it would be 16.3 percent.

24. On average, the tax ratio over the GPRSP period will stand at 17.0 percent, after reaching 18.3 percent in 2017.

Table 6:Tax ratio target
Average

2007-2010
2011201220132014201520162017Average

2012-2017
Tax ratio14.20%14.3%15.4%16.3%16.8%17.4%17.8%18.3%17.0%
Table 7:Strategies in view of achieving tax ratio targets per service
SERVICES2012*20132014201520162017
Fiscal revenues15.4%16.3%16.8%17.4%17.8%18.3%
Directorate of Customs6.3%6.8%7.0%7.3%7.4%7.6%
Directorate of Taxation8.2%8.8%9.0%9.3%9.6%9.8%
National Directorate of the Public Treasury and Accounting0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%
National Directorate for State Property and Land-Tenure0.6%0.5%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%
NB: Gross amounts (including fiscal spending)
NB: Gross amounts (including fiscal spending)

25. To achieve this goal the following measures will be implemented:

- Reforming the tax policy

• Introduction in the 2012 to 2014 finance bills of measures aimed at mobilizing more revenue while rationalizing and modernizing tax legislation by reducing exemptions.

• Identification and gradual reduction of exemptions.

• Development and implementation of a strategy to adjust domestic prices of energy (petroleum products and electricity) to international price trends.

- Reforming the taxation, customs and land tenure administrations

26. Priority will be given to the implementation of reforms started in 2011 to sustainably improve the operation of VAT, upon which about 40 percent of fiscal revenue is based. To this effect, the following measures are being implemented:

  • a public treasury account has been opened in the Central Bank of West African States to receive, on the one hand, all VAT revenue paid by mining companies on their imports, and on the other hand, 10 percent of domestic VAT revenues. The use of this account is reserved for the reimbursement of VAT credits. This facility allows for the effective and regular reimbursement of VAT credits due, on the one hand to gold exporting companies and, on the other hand, to all other enterprises generating VAT credits.
  • the VAT withholding system will be done away with, except for the Public Treasury, where this elimination will intervene gradually.
  • the modification of turnover thresholds in the Directorate of Large Enterprises (DGE) and the Directorate of Medium-sized Enterprises (DME) in view of rationalizing the management of tax payers: the turnover threshold of large enterprises will be raised from 500 million FCFA to 1 billion as from 1 January 2013, while that of medium-sized enterprises will be lowered. This innovation will improve the management and control of large enterprises, rapidly increase the number of taxpayers managed by the Directorate of Large Enterprises, and improve the management of the VAT by entrusting it fully to the DGE and DME.
  • improvement of the administration of taxpayers managed by the DGE. The Tax Directorate (DGI) will take all appropriate steps to render mandatory the payment of taxes through bank transfers for all companies managed by the DGE by 1 January 2013 and will implement an on-line declaration system, with the aim of obtaining ISO certification for the DGE.
  • improvement of the administration of taxpayers managed by the DME. The Tax Directorate will continue to pay particular attention to the functioning of the DME which shall take the following measures: (i) scale up its portfolio to increase the number of taxpayers; (ii) reduce VAT declaration failure rate to less than 10 percent by end of 2012 to reach less than 5 percent by end of 2013; and (iii) step up the coverage of fiscal control to at least 20 percent of its portfolio.
  • promotion of tax compliance.
  • Implementation of automatic selectivity of customs controls.
  • Modernization of the National Directorate of State Property and Land Surveys (DNDC).
  • Institution of multidisciplinary control. A fiscal intelligence unit will be established to audit tax returns and identify new taxpayers using all the databases of taxpayers or business persons listed at the DGI, the Directorate of Administration of State property, the DNDC and at the Directorate General of Public Contracts.

b. Controlling public spending trends

27. The government will pursue its policy of tight control over spending. As such, to comply with the budget deficit targets in WAEMU and ECOWAS, Government intends to contain the evolution of operating expenses of the State within their past trends, except for the social sectors that must cope with demographic challenges. As such, the rate of increase of operating expenses will settle at an average of 10.3 percent compared to 12.8 percent between 2007 and 2011. They will represent an average of 11.1 percent of GDP compared to 13.1 percent for the past trend.

28. Capital expenditures will evolve on an average of 13.9 percent compared to 10.6 percent from 2007 to 2011.

1.2.3. Fiscal policy framework assumptions

29. The fiscal framework of the GPRSP is built on a real GDP growth target of 6.1 percent on average and an average price deflator of 2.2 percent.

Table 8:Macroeconomic budget framework assumptions
Av.

2007-

2010
2011201220132014201520162017Av.

2012-

2017
Nominal GDP (FCFA billions)4 0535 1085495.95918.96390.7693587590.18330.37017.97
Real GDP growth rate4.9%5.3%5.5%5.6%5.8%6.2%6.7%7.0%6.1%
GDP Deflator4.6%4.5%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.2%2.6%2.6%2.2%

2. 2012-2017 Public Finances

2.1. 2007-2011 budget review

30. Macroeconomic performance, more specifically the results of budget implementation, was highly sensitive to the hazards of agricultural production and commodity prices. As such, from 2007 to 2010, the international economic environment was characterized by an increase in the prices of petroleum products and foodstuffs.

31. This resulted in recourse to the fiscal instrument to attenuate the impact of high inflation on the population resulting in the constitution of a significant stock of payment arrears in 2008. The regulation also resulted in delays in the implementation of many projects.

32. However, the general orientation of the fiscal policy was, on the whole, satisfactory during the period since fiscal balance trends, such as the basic fiscal balance (excluding HIPC), maintained a viable trajectory, leveling off at an average of -0.4 percent of GDP compared to the standard of 0 percent recommended by the WAEMU convergence criteria. The overall fiscal balance (excluding grants) stood at an average of -7.7 percent of GDP compared to the standard of -4 percent provided by the ECOWAS convergence criteria.

Table 9:Fiscal balance trends
200720082009201020112007-

2011 av
Overall balance including grants (% GDP)−3.1%−2.2%−4.6%−2.5%−4.8%−3.4%
Overall balance excluding grants (% GDP)−7.7%−5.7%−9.6%−5.4%−9.9%−7.7%
Basic fiscal balance (%GDP)0.3%−0.6%−1.3%−0.1%−1.7%−0.7%
Basic fiscal balance excluding HIPC (in %GDP)0.6%−0.1%−1.0%0.2%−1.5%−0.4%

2.1.1. Evolution of budgetary resources from 2007 to 2011

33. Based on the 2007-2010 conditions of implementation and the 2011 projections, revenues and grants evolved at an average of 11.1 percent.

34. It is important to single out the evolution of net tax revenue, which averages at 10.7 percent, to better appreciate the effort put in to mobilize internal resources. This indicator is linked to the tax ratio (excluding fiscal expenses) that averaged at 14.4 percent.

Table 10:Evolution of budgetary resources according to the TOFE presentation (FCFA billions)
Items20072008200920102011Av growth

rate 07-11
REVENUES, GRANTS,730.4741.5918.6940.01 113.111.1%
Total revenues570.0607.3724.7806.3852.510.6%
Budgetary revenues509.5540.6653.2727.6781.011.3%
Tax revenue487.2519.4624.3681.8730.910.7%
direct taxes142.8149.7177.1204.6216.911.0%
indirect taxes344.4369.7447.2477.2514.010.5%
VAT194.4200.8247.4261.8300.811.5%
Domestic VAT77.688.193.599.0122.312.0%
VAT on imports116.8112.7153.9162.8178.511.2%
Domestic taxes on petroleum products36.635.223.125.524.1−9.9%
Taxes on imports (Custom duty and taxes)62.464.390.194.698.412.1%
Other duties and taxes85.191.993.6102.3127.710.7%
Reimbursement of tax exemptions−14.4−2.2−1.2−4.0
Reimbursement of VAT credit−34.1−8.1−4.8−5.7−33.0−0.8%
Non-tax revenue (Budget)22.321.228.945.850.122.4%
Revenue from special funds and annual budget60.566.771.578.771.54.3%
Grants160.4134.2193.9133.7260.612.9%
Projects79.654.696.557.2167.320.4%
Budgetary50.625.051.954.947.4−1.6%
Budgetary support27.954.645.521.645.913.3%
Table 11:Evolution of budgetary resources from 2007 to 2011 according to the presentation of the finance bill
TYPE OF REVENUES2 0072 0082 0092 0102 011Av growth Rate

2007-2011
TOTAL RESOURCES775,2773,0948,8987,11 275,813,3%
Tax revenues507.6528.9628.5688.7768.610.9%
Non-tax revenues35.039.565.893.7112.834.0%
Exceptional income10.710.98.112.414.06.9%
Special investment budget159.1133.2191.3167.5325.219.6%
Budgetary support59.156.145.519.345.0−6.6%
Annexed budgets3.84.49.65.510.127.4%
Table 12:Evolution of the tax ratio
20072008200920102011Average
Tax revenues (% PIB)14.2%13.3%14.9%14.7%15.1%14.4%

35. The revenue implementation rate for the period 2007-2010 stood at an average of 86.9 percent. Only the targets of mobilization of tax and non-tax revenues (99 percent and 94.1 percent respectively) were more or less attained. The low level of mobilization of external resources (61.5 percent) should be noted.

Table 13:Implementation rate of 2007-2010 revenues
TYPE OF REVENUES2007200820092010Average
Tax revenue95.0%96.6%102.9%101.4%99.0%
Non-tax revenue88.5%85.2%104.2%98.6%94.1%
Exceptional revenue101.9%58.3%70.6%100.0%82.7%
Special investment budget (External Financing)64.4%51.2%74.3%56.4%61.5%
Budgetary support93.1%87.2%81.8%34.3%74.1%
Annexed budgets special accounts and funds67.7%84.9%73.8%47.0%68.3%
Total budget revenues of the State86.1%82.0%93.8%85.7%86.9%

2.1.2. Evolution of expenses from 2007 to 2011

36. Based on the TOFE analysis, the evolution of total spending averaged at 10.4 percent. The rate of increase of current expenditures (12.8 percent on average) was faster than that of capital expenditure (4.9 percent on average).

37. The evolution of average current expenditure was driven by the interest on domestic debt (31.2 percent), expenditure on contract teaching staff (27.5 percent) and the transfer of funds and subsidies (16.6 percent). The evolution of capital expenditure was especially driven by that of capital expenditure financed by domestic resources, that is, 7.1 percent on average, compared to 3.2 percent for capital expenditure financed by external resources.

Table 14:Evolution of expenses from 2007 to 2011 (TOFE presentation)
Item20072008200920102011Av growth

rate. 07-11
Total spending, Net Loans (Commitment base)839.0828.41 111.11 054.31 245.810.4%
Budgetary expenditures826.1754.11 018.0960.91 178.39.3%
Current expenditures437.1459.2581.1591.0707.712.8%
Staff (11)162.8186.1217.1231.9269.713.5%
Civil servants139.8161.4179.1183.7208.810.6%
Contract workers (HIPC)23.024.738.048.260.927.5%
Goods and Services161.3164.7201.3206.0229.59.2%
Transfer of funds and subsidies99.194.3146.9133.3183.516.6%
Interests owed13.914.115.819.825.115.9%
Domestic debt2.71.63.37.48.031.2%
External debt11.212.512.512.417.111.1%
Capital expenditure389.0294.9436.9369.9470.64.9%
External financing227.6172.8303.2187.7258.63.2%
Domestic financing (Investment on equipment)161.4122.1133.7182.2212.07.1%
Expenditure on special funds and annexed budgets60.566.771.578.771.54.3%
Table 15:Evolution of expenditures from 2007 to 2011 (presentation of the finance bill)
TYPE OF EXPENDITURES20072008200920102011Av. growth

rate 2007-2011
CURRENT EXPENDITURES448.5478.2556.4612.7723.612.7%
STAFF162.9186.0213.3233.0269.713.4%
EQUIPMENT AND FUNCTIONING63.669.172.785.490.39.2%
TRAVEL AND MISSIONS33.332.232.339.737.73.2%
COMMUNICATION AND ENERGY22.226.628.029.630.17.4%
OTHER EXPENSES68.259.365.373.0112.313.3%
TRANSFER OF FUNDS AND SUBSIDIES98.0105.0144.9152.0183.517.0%
DEBTS53.8159.867.363.6104.218.0%
AMORTIZATION25.129.135.533.969.128.8%
INTERESTS11.814.816.818.725.120.8%
DOMESTIC INTERESTS0.81.51.93.98.076.4%
EXTERNAL INTERESTS10.913.314.814.817.111.7%
DISCHARGE OF DEBTS16.915.815.011.010.0−12.4%
CAPITAL SPENDING376.0340.7393.0379.7585.811.7%
EQUIPMENT AND INVESTMENTS58.645.641.760.189.611.2%
SIB DOMESTIC FINANCING99.2105.8112.9121.4126.06.2%
SIB EXTERNAL FINANCING159.1133.2191.3167.5325.219.6%
BUDGETARY SUPPORT59.156.147.130.745.0−6.6%
ANNEXED BUDGET, SPECIAL ACCOUNTS AND FUNDS3.84.48.06.510.127.4%
GRAND TOTAL882.2883.21024.61062.51423.712.7%
GRAND TOTAL/NOMINAL GDP (%)25.35%22.58%24.51%23.05%27.89%24.51%
Table 16:Rate of implementation of expenditures from 2007 to 2010 (presentation of the finance bill)
Type of expenditure2007200820092010Av impl.

2007-2010
Current expenditures98.9%96.2%95.2%95.7%96.5%
Staff101.4%96.3%98.2%98.8%98.7%
Equipment & functioning98.2%97.4%90.9%97.2%95.9%
Travel and missions98.9%98.5%86.4%98.4%95.6%
Communication and energy96.6%98.4%98.6%98.8%98.1%
Other expenses98.7%98.3%94.6%99.0%97.6%
Transfer of funds and subsidies96.1%93.1%94.8%88.1%93.0%
DEBTS87.6%90.9%94.9%98.7%93.0%
Amortization77.6%83.4%94.4%99.1%88.6%
Interests98.4%99.3%92.4%97.8%97.0%
Domestic interests100.0%100.0%100.0%94.0%98.5%
External interests98.3%99.2%91.4%100.0%97.2%
Discharge of debts99.1%99.7%98.9%99.2%99.2%
Capital spending79.3%69.9%80.2%68.0%74.4%
Equipment & investment96.5%95.3%84.2%78.2%88.6%
SIB domestic financing96.8%91.8%85.9%95.0%92.4%
SIB external financing64.4%51.2%74.3%56.3%61.5%
Budgetary support93.1%87.2%91.8%54.5%81.6%
Annexed budgets, special accounts and funds66.6%84.9%61.4%55.8%67.2%
General total88.7%83.7%88.4%83.4%86.0%

38. Following the analysis of the implementation situation according to the presentation of the Finance Bill, it can be noted that current expenditures are achieved at 96.5 percent compared with an implementation rate of 74.4 percent for capital expenditure. This level of implementation of investment expenditures stems from the poor capacities of absorption and mobilization of SIB external financing, that is, an implementation rate of 61.5 percent.

2.2. Debt status at the end of 2011

39. The public debt stock of Mali at the end of 2011 was estimated at 1 353.8 billion FCFA, that is 26.5 percent of GDP, of which 1 193.3 billion FCFA constitutes external debt, while 160.5 billion FCFA constitutes domestic debt.

Table 17:Outstanding public debt between 2007 and 2010 (FCFA billions)
20072008200920102011
External debt695.3790.7907.71212.31193.3
− Multilateral debt247.7331.6740.1977.6960.2
− Bilateral debt447.6459.1167.6234.7233.1
Domestic debt12.542.363.5203.4160.5
− Treasury bills:
− Bills that mature after 12 months51.542
− Treasury bonds
− Bonds maturing after 5 years21.164.450.7
− Bonds maturing after 10 years32.232.232.228.2
Statutory advances from the Central Bank of West African States12.510.17.75.22.6
− Other domestic debts2.550.137
Public debt707.8833971.21415.71353.8
Outstanding public debt /GDP (in %)20.7%21.3%23.2%25.3%26.5%
Source: DGDP
Source: DGDP

2.3. 2012-2017 budgetary projections

40. The analysis of the budgetary projections is based on the “TOFE presentation”. However, some tables will also bring out “the finance bill presentation”.

2.3.1. Projection of 2012 to 2017resources

41. The 2017 projections for revenues and grants stand at 1 978.4 billion FCFA compared to 1 113.1 billion FCFA in 2011, representing an average growth rate of 11.8 percent compared to the average of 11.1 percent from 2007 to 2011.

Table 18:Projection of resources from 2012 to 2017 according to the TOFE presentation (FCFA billions)
Items2011201220132014201520162017Av

growth

rate 07-

11
Av

growth

rate

2012-

2017
REVENUES, GRANTS1113.31132.81337.51466.71620.71784.81978.611.1%11.8%
Total revenues852.7972.21114.41235.71380.71544.81738.610.6%12.3%
Budgetary revenues781.2894.81031.01145.71283.01437.91621.311.3%12.6%
Tax revenues731.1836.2966.51074.81205.01352.11526.910.7%12.8%
Direct taxes216.9235.5238.4269.5304.2343.5388.011.0%10.5%
Indirect taxes514.2600.7728.1805.3900.81008.61138.910.5%13.6%
VAT301.0340.1386.6431.2480.9536.6601.011.5%12.1%
Domestic VAT122.5135.8154.4173.3194.4217.7243.412.0%12.4%
VAT on imports178.5204.3232.2257.9286.5318.9357.611.2%11.8%
Domestic tax on petroleum products24.17.048.056.065.276.990.6−9.9%66.9%
Import tax (Custom duty and taxes)98.4113.3136.4145.1155.9183.0226.212.1%14.8%
Other duties and taxes127.7180.3199.1216.9245.2261.3273.910.7%8.7%
Reimbursement of tax exemptions−4.0−5.0%−100%
Reimbursement of VAT credits−33.0−35.0−42.0−43.9−46.3−49.2−52.7−0.8%8.5%
Non-tax revenues (budget)50.158.664.570.978.085.894.422.4%10.0%
Revenue from Special Funds and annual budget71.577.483.490.097.7106.9117.34.3%8.7%
Grants260.6160.6223.1231.0240.0240.0240.012.9%8.4%
Projects167.385.9148.4156.3165.3165.3165.320.4%14.0%
Budgetary47.446.446.446.446.446.446.4−1.6%0.0%
Budgetary support45.928.328.328.328.328.328.313.3%0.0%
Table 19:Projection of resources from 2012 to 2017 according to the budget presentation (FCFA billions)
TYPE OF RESOURCES2011201220132014201520162017Av.

growth

rate

2007-

2011
Av.

growth

rate 2012-

2017
TOTAL RESOURCES1 275.81 339. 11 426.91 564.21 727.31 903.82 110.813.3%9.5%
BUDGETARY REVENUES881.5952.61 031.21 145.91 283.31 438.11 621.712.9%11.2%
− TAX REVENUE768.6875.8966.71 075.01 205.31 352.31 527. 310.9%11.8%
− NON TAX REVENUE112.876.764.570.978.085.894.434.0%4.2%
EXCEPTIONAL REVENUES14.011.611.611.611.611.611.66.9%0.0%
SPECIAL INVESTMENT BUDGET325.2326.7346.5369.1394.8416.4439.919.6%6.1%
BUDGET SUPPORT45.038.628.028.028.028.028.0−6.6%−6.2%
ANNEXED BUDGETS, SPECIAL ACCOUNTS AND FUNDS10.19.69.69.69.69.69.627.4%0.0%

a. Projections based on the type of resources

Tax revenues:

42. Total tax revenues are projected at 1 527.0 billion FCFA in 2017 compared to 731.1 billion in 2011, representing an average growth rate of 12.8 percent, compared to an average of 10.7 percent during the period 2007-2011.

Non-tax revenues

43. Globally, non-tax revenues are projected at 94.4 billion FCFA in 2017 compared to 50.1 billion in 2011. The average growth rate is thus estimated at 10.0 percent compared to 22.4 percent between 2007 and 2011.

Grants

44. Grants will increase from 260.6 billion FCFA in 2011 to 240.0 billion FCFA in 2017, representing an average increase of 8.4 percent, compared with 12.9 percent during the period 2007-2011. This increase stems from project grants that will rise at an average of 14.0 percent compared to 20.4 percent between 2007 and 2011.

b. Projections of resources per recovery service:

45. These include the resources of (i) the Directorate of Customs (ii) the Directorate of Taxation (iii) the National Directorate of Public Treasury and Accounting (iv) the National Directorate for State property and Land surveys (v) the Directorate of Administration of State Assets, (vi) the Directorate of Public Debt.

46. Table 20 shows that the cash receipts of the Directorate of Customs will increase by an average of 14.5 percent; while those of the Directorate of Taxation will increase by 10.6 percent and those of the National Directorate for State property and Land surveys by 6.6 percent.

Table 20:Distribution of resources per service (FCFA billions)
Base

year
2012-2017 medium term budget frameworkAv. Growth rate
SERVICES2011201220132014201520162017Av. GR 07-

11
Av. GR 12-

17
Directorate of Customs300.95324.50403.35448.54502.92564.27637.268.5%14.5%
Directorate of Taxation425.53495.20518.75576.87646.81725.71819.5813.4%10.6%
National Directorate of Public Treasury and Accounting12.3215.6124.3526.9229.9133.2437.08−12.8%18.9%
National Directorate for State property and Land surveys79.20.92.8984.7393.55103.67114.92127.7617.1%6.6%
Directorate of Administration of State assets64.0816.000.000.000.000.000.00176.8%−100.0%
Directorate of Public Debt.3.102.000.000.000.000.000.00−5.0%−100.0%
TOTAL885.18946.211031.171145.891283.311438.141621.6713.0%11.4%
Table 21:Share of services in projected resources
SERVICES2011201220132014201520162017Average weight 08-2011Average weight 2012-2017
Directorate of Customs34.0%34.3%39.1%39.1%39.2%39.2%39.3%37.2%38.4%
Directorate of Taxation48.1%52.3%50.3%50.3%50.4%50.5%50.5%47.9%50.7%
National Directorate of Public Treasury and Accounting1.4%1.6%2.4%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.7%2.2%
National Directorate for State property and Land surveys8.9%9.8%8.2%8.2%8.1%8.0%7.9%7.6%8.4%
Directorate of Administration of State assets7.2%1.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%4.1%0.3%
Directorate of Public Debt.0.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%
Table 22:Distribution by service and by type of revenue
Base year2012-2017 medium term

budget framework
Av. Growth rate
Type of revenue per service2011201220132014201520162017Av. Gr rate 07-11Av. Gr rate 12-17
Tax revenues768.65875.68966.671074.991205.311352.341527.2710.9%11.8%
Directorate of Customs300.9324.5403.3448.5502.9564.3637.38.5%14.5%
Directorate of Taxation425.5495.2518.7576.9646.8725.7819.613.4%10.6%
National Directorate of Public Treasury and Accounting10.011.212.413.815.417.319.5−7.2%11.9%
National Directorate for State property and Land surveys32.244.832.235.840.245.150.913.0%2.6%
Non-tax revenues112.876.864.578.978.085.894.434.0%4.2%
National Directorate of Public Treasury and Accounting2.34.512.013.214.515.917.5−26.1%31.5%
National Directorate for State property and Land surveys47.054.152.557.763.569.976.920.5%7.3%
Directorate of Administration of State assets59.516.20.00.00.00.00.0171.7%−100.0%
Directorate of Public Debt.4.02.00.00.00.00.00.01.2%−100.0%
TOTAL881.5952.41031.21145.91283.31438.11621.712.9%11.2%
Table 23:Weight by service and by type of resources (%)
Base year2012-2017 medium term budget frameworkAverage weight
SERVICES2011201220132014201520162017Av. weight 07-11Av. weight 12-17
Tax revenues100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100.0%100.0%
Directorate of Customs39.2%37.1%41.7%41.7%41.7%41.7%41.7%41.1%40.9%
Directorate of Taxation55.4%56.6%53.7%53.7%53.7%53.7%53.7%53.0%54.1%
National Directorate of Public Treasury and Accounting1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%2.0%1.3%
National Directorate for State property and Land surveys4.2%5.1%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.9%3.6%
Non-tax revenues100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100.0%100.0%
National Directorate of Public Treasury and Accounting2.1%5.8%18.6%18.6%18.6%18.6%18.6%11.4%18.4%
National Directorate for State property and Land surveys41.7%70.5%81.4%81.4%81.4%81.4%81.4%45.8%779.6%
Directorate of Administration of State assets52.7%21.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%36.6%3.5%
Directorate of Public Debt3.5%2.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%0.4%

Figure 2:Average weight of tax and non-tax revenues

2.3.2. Projection of expenses from 2012 to 2017

47. The expenses have been projected (according to the TOFE - presentation) in 2017 at 2 197.0 billion FCFA compared to 1 358.3 billion FCFA in 2011, that is, an average increase of 10.2 percent compared to 10.4 percent for past trends.

48. The framework lays emphasis on the mastery of the operating expenditures and the strengthening of capital expenses. As such, the average increase of current expenditures will stand at 10.3 percent in the GPRSP III period, compared to 12.8 percent for the past trend. Concerning the capital expenses, they will vary on an average of 10.3 percent between 2012 and 2017, compared to only 4.9 percent in the period 2007-2011 due to the poor mobilization of external resources.

Table 24:Projection of expenditures according to the TOFE presentation
Items2011201220132014201520162017Av.

Growth

rate 07-

11
Av.

Growth

rate

2012-

2017
Total expenses, net loans, (commitment base)1358.31349.81524.81662.21809.11988.42197.010.4%%
Budgetary expenditures1290.81274.51443.51574.31713.61883.82082.09.3%10.3%
Current expenditures707.7795.7849.0933.01026.71147.01301.112.8%10.3%
Staff269.7306.8333.3362.3412.3453.1506.713.5%10.6%
Civil servants208.8227.8247.5269.0308.0336.4376.210.6%10.6%
Contract workers (HIPC)60.979.085.893.3104.3116.7130.527.5%10.6%
Goods and services229.5250.5258.2294.4313.4364.0435.69.2%11.7%
Equipment90.397.0105.6116.4126.3137.0158.011.7%10.3%
Communication – energy30.130.735.940.245.354.160.96.5%14.7%
Travel and transport37.742.647.754.462.071.286.93.7%15.3%
Elections14.017.01.610.11.86.016.5−0.9%−0.6%
Other expenditures on goods and services57.463.267.473.377.795.4113.015.0%12.3%
Transfer of funds and subsidies183.5204.8223.3241.3265.0293.0320.916.7%9.4%
Stock exchange15.017.819.622.023.526.329.627.9%10.7%
Social security safety net10.010.010.010.010.010.010.03.5%0.0%
Water and electricity subsidies20.015.020.020.020.020.020.05.9%
Agricultural inputs25.830.035.737.441.846.852.611.9%
CRM subsidies11.215.920.021.023.526.329.6−14.4%13.2%
Social plans (PASEP)2.02.0−100.0%
Other transfers of funds and subsidies99.5114.1118.0130.9146.2163.6179.111.8%9.4%
Interest owed25.133.634.235.036.036.037.915.9%2.4%
Domestic debt8.014.114.214.514.915.315.731.2%2.2%
External debt17.119.520.020.521.121.622.211.1%2.6%
Capital expenditure583.1478.4594.5641.3686.9736.8780.94.9%10.3%
External financing371.1298.0374.8397.4423.1444.7468.23.2%9.5%
Domestic financing (Equipment investment)212.0180.8219.7243.9263.8292.1312.77.1%11.6%
Expenditure on special funds and annexed budgets71.577.483.490.097.7106.9117.34.3%8.7%
Net loans−4.0−2.1−2.1−2.2−2.2−2.3−2.3−46.2%−2.6%
Table 25:Projection of expenses according to the finance bill (FCFA billions)
Type of expenditures2011201220132014201520162017Av.

Growth

rate

2007-

2011
Av.

Growth

rate

2012-

2017
CURRENT EXPENDITURES723.6803.8862.7985.21084.21211.51373.912.70%11.32%
STAFF269.7306.7333.3362.3412.3453.1506.713.43%10.56%
EQUIPMENT AND FUNCTIONING90.397.0105.6116.4126.1136.8157.89.18%10.22%
TRAVEL AND MISSIONS37.742.647.754.462.071.286.93.17%15.35%
COMMUNICATION AND ENERGY30.130.735.940.245.354.160.97.44%14.71%
OTHER EXPENDITURES112.3122.1116.9133.2131.7156.5188.113.28%9.02%
TRANSFER OF FUNDS AND SUBSIDIES183.5204.7223.3278.7306.8339.8373.516.98%12.78%
DEBTS104.2126.1103.6105.6107.7110.2111.917.96%−2.36%
AMORTIZATION69.182.154.455.656.758.360.028.84%−6.08%
INTERESTS25.133.634.235.036.036.936.920.79%1.89%
DOMESTIC8.014.114.214.514.915.315.376.36%1.65%
EXTERNAL17.119.520.020.521.121.621.611.73%2.07%
Discharge of debts10.010.415.015.015.015.015.0−12.36%7.60%
CAPITAL INPUT FACTOR585.8541.5594.5641.3686.9736.8780.911.73%7.60%
EQUIPMENT AND INVESTMENT89.655.764.168.777.787.596.211.19%11.54%
SIB DOMESTIC FINANCING126.0130.1155.6175.2186.1204.6216.56.16%10.73%
SIB EXTERNAL FINANCING325.2326.7346.5369.1394.8416.4439.919.58%6.13%
BUDGETARY SUPPORT45.029.028.328.328.328.328.3−6.58%−0.48%
ANNEXED BUDGETS, ACCOUNTS AND SPECIAL FUNDS10.19.69.69.69.69.69.627.42%0.00%
GRAND TOTAL1423.71481.11570.41741.71888.42068.12276.312.71%8.98%

Figure 3:Average share of expenses

a. Current expenditures

49. In 2011, current expenditures amounted to 707.7 billion FCFA and will amount to 1 301.1 billion FCFA in 2017, corresponding to an average increase rate of 10.3 percent compared to an average growth rate of 12.8 percent for the period 2007-2011. Their average share will be 56 percent in the period of projection compared to 58.6 percent for the past period.

• Staff expenses

50. The wage policy will remain unchanged. The wage bill was projected on the basis of the impact of yearly recruitments, advancements and on those going on retirement.

Impact of advancements3.0 billion
Impact of new recruitments9.9 billion
Administration0.5 billion
Health0.7 billion
Education0.4 billion
Education contract workers6.8 billion
Justice0.3 billion
Defense0.9 billion
Security0.5 billion
Impact of retirement−1.5 billion

51. To the above, should be added the impact of the revision of the salary grid and the increase of the retirement age for some categories of government employees.

52. The 2011wage bill amounted to 269.7 billion FCFA and will total 506.7 billion in 2017; representing an average increase of 10.6 percent in the period 2012-2017 compared to 13.5 percent in the period 2007- 2011. It will represent 33 percent of fiscal revenue compared to 35.2 percent in the 2007-2011 GPRSP period. The decrease in this ratio is due to the projected increase of fiscal revenue. Relative to GDP, the projected wage bill ratio will be 5.6 percent, compared to 5 percent for the period 2007-2011.

53. However, it should be noted that these projections represent the lowest amounts as they could evolve depending on claims put forward by different categories of workers.

• Equipment costs and running expenses

54. In relation to the mainstreaming of demographic pressure, especially in the education sector, the evolution of equipment costs and running expenses will settle at an average of 11.6 percent, compared to 9.2 percent recorded during the period 2007-2011. In absolute value, these expenditures will increase from 229.5 billion in 2011, to 435.6 billion in 2017.

• Transfer of funds and subsidies

55. Transfer of funds and subsidies amounted to 183.5 billion FCFA in 2011 and total 320.9 billion in 2017, corresponding to an average increase of 9.4 percent, compared to 16.7 percent between 2007 and 2011. In spite of the control of their evolution, subsidy measures in the agricultural sector (agricultural inputs) and EDM_SA were maintained.

Table 26:Projection of agricultural input subsidies and EDM subsidies (FCFA billions)
2011201220132014201520162017
Agricultural inputs subsidies25,83035,737,441,846,852,6
EDM subsidy20202020202020

• Interest on public debt

56. This interest amounted to 25.1 billion FCFA in 2011 and will reach 37.9 billion in 2017, representing an average increase of 2.4 percent, compared to 15.9 percent between 2007 and 2011.

b. Capital expenses

57. Capital expenses are expected to amount to 780.9 billion FCFA in 2017 compared to 583.1 billion FCFA in 2011, corresponding to an average increase of 10.3 percent within the period of the framework, compared to 4.9 percent for past trends. This level of increase of these expenditures is in keeping with the economic growth targets.

58. Efforts to increase capital expenditures will be financed mostly from domestic resources where the rate of increase will be 11.6 percent compared to 9.5 percent for capital expenditures financed from external resources.

2.3.3. Projection of fiscal balances from 2012 to 2017

59. Two fiscal balances will be studied: (i) the overall balance (according to the presentations of the finance bill and the TOFE), and (ii) the basic fiscal balance.

60. These balances were projected having as their guideline macroeconomic stability and the willingness to respect the convergence criteria of WAEMU and ECOWAS.

Box 1:Meaning of usual balances

The overall fiscal balance or conventional deficit: this corresponds to the difference between revenues (including grants) and expenditures.

  • Financial significance: in the absence of arrear variations, the deficit determines the evolution of the nominal outstanding value of the public debt. It provides a measurement of the borrowing needs of the State.
  • Basic fiscal balance = total fiscal revenues plus budgetary grants - total budgetary expenditures excluding capital expenditures financed from external resources.
  • Financial significance: this indicator allows for a better appreciation of the relationship between fiscal policy and the borrowing policy. It is used to assess the equilibrium of public finance independently from the impact of development assistance.
  • Primary balance = total fiscal revenue - total budgetary expenditures excluding interest on debt. Financial significance: this indicator measures the deficit that can be attributed to the management of the budget while excluding the effect of past financial commitments.

a. Overall deficit

61. The budgetary deficit according to the presentation of the finance bill will have the following annual amounts:

  • - 2012: 141.988 billion FCFA;
  • - 2013: 143.5 billion FCFA;
  • - 2014: 177.5 billion FCFA;
  • - 2015: 161.1 billion FCFA;
  • - 2016:164.4 billion FCFA;
  • - 2017: 165.5 FCFA billion.

Figure 4:Budget deficit according to the presentation of finance law

62. According to the TOFE presentation, the global deficit is projected as follows:

Table 27:Overall deficit (FCFA billions and in percent of the GDP)
2007-2011

Average
2012201320142015201620172012-2017

Average
Overall balance, grants included−307.2−377.6−410.4−426.4428.4−443.6−458.3−424.1
Overall balance, grants excluded−127.3−217.0−187.3−195.4188.4−203.6−218.3−201.7
Overall balance, grants included (%GDP)−3.00%−3.9%−3.2%−3.1%2.7%−2.7%−2.6%−3.0%
Overall balance, grants excluded (%PIB)−7.20%−6.9%−6.9%−6.7%6.2%−5.8%−5.5%−6.3%

63. The level of overall deficit excluding grants, averaging 6.3%, will remain above the ECOWAS standard (4 percent) and the average of the 2007-2011 period (7.2 percent).

64. This trend is related to the sharp increase in capital expenses to support the objectives of accelerated economic growth.

b. Basic budget deficit

65. The criterion of basic fiscal balance excluding HIPC (> 0) will be respected over the 2012-2017 period, as it will stand at 0.5 percent.

Table 28:Basic budget deficit (Billion FCFA and in percent of the GDP)
2007-

2011

Average
2012201320142015201620172012-

2017

Average
Basic fiscal balance−32.4−33.812.817.441.247.556.423.6
Basic fiscal balance excluding HIPC−19.1−21.524.429.052.859.168.035.3
Basic fiscal balance (percent GDP)−0.7%−0.6%0.2%0.3%0.6%0.6%0.7%0.3%
Basic fiscal balance excluding HIPC (percent GDP)−0.4%−0.4%0.4%0.5%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.5%

2.3.4. Projection of deficit financing

66. To finance the deficit reached, foreign financing will increase from 174.2 billion in 2011 to 268.6 in 2017. It would consist primarily of loans estimated at 317.0 billion in 2017 compared to 202.6 billion in 2011. Debt retirement is estimated in the order of 60.0 billion in 2017, compared with 40.8 billion in 2011. HIPC resources will average 11.6 billion..

67. Domestic deficit financing would amount to -50 billion in 2017, compared with 70.8 billion in 2011.

Table 29:Financing projection
Sections2011201220132014201520162017
FINANCING245.0217.0187.3195.4188.4203.6218.3
Foreign financing (net)174.2184.2197.7211.2226.8246.8268.6
Loans202.6225.9240.5255.2271.9293.5317.0
Projects157.9183.8198.1212.8229.5251.1274.6
Budget loans44.742.142.442.442.442.442.4
Amortization−40.8−53.3−54.4−55.6−56.7−58.3−60.0
Debt relief (HIPC)12.411.611.611.611.611.611.6
Domestic financing (net)70.832.8−10.4−15.8−38.4−43.2−50.3
FINANCING GAP0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

2.4. Situation compared with the WAEMU and ECOWAS convergence criteria

68. In terms of community involvement, efforts to respect the WAEMU and ECOWAS convergence criteria will continue. Tables 30 and 31 indicate the position of Mali during the GPRSP III period.

Table 30:Situation of the WAEMU convergence criteria
Convergence criteriaWAEM

U norm
2007-

2011

Av.
20112012201320142015201620172012-

2017

Av.
Primary criteria
Basic fiscal balance on GDP≥0%−0.7%−1.7%−0.6%0.2%0.3%0.6%0.6%0.7%0.3%
Basic fiscal balance on GDP (excluding HIPC)≥0%−0.4%−1.5%−0.4%0.4%0.5%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.5%
Inflation rate≤3%3.5%2.5%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%
Outstanding public debt added to GDP≥70%21.3%26.5%22.7%16.2%15.0%13.8%12.6%11.5%15.3%
Non-accumulation of payment arrears0000000000.0%
Secondary criteria
Wage bill on tax revenues≤35%35.2%36.9%36.7%34.5%33.7%34.2%33.5%33.2%34.3%
Public investments financed on domestic resources added to tax revenues≥20%26.2%29.6%21.6%22.7%22.7%21.9%21.6%20.5%21.8%
Current foreign balance excluding grants on GDP≤5%−9.0%−9.0%−9.7%−9.4%−8.4%−7.5%−6.6%6.8%8.1%
Tax ratio rate≥17%14.2%14.3%15.1%16.3%16.8%17.4%17.8%18.3%17.0%
Number of criteria respected344667777
Table 31:Situation of the ECOWAS convergence criteria
Convergence criteriaECO

WAS

norm
2007-

2011

Av.
20112012201320142015201620172012-

2017

Av.
Primary criteria7.7%9.9%6.9%6.9%6.7%6.2%5.8%5.5%6.3%
Overall budget deficit ratio excluding on nominal GDP≤4%
Inflation rate at the end of the period≤5%3.5%2.5%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.1%2.2%2.2%2.2%
Budget deficit financing by the Central Bank ≤ 10% of tax revenues of the previous year*≤10%
Foreign exchange reserves in the month of importation≥6
Secondary criteria
Non-accumulation of domestic arrears and elimination of all arrears0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Tax revenue ratio/GDP≥20%14.2%14.3%15.1%16.3%16.8%17.4%17.8%18.3%17.0%
Wage bill/tax revenues ≤35%≤35%35.236.936.7%34.5%33.734.233.5%33.234.3
%%%%%%
Public investment ratio financed on domestic resources/revenues ≥ 20% taxes≥20%26.2%29.6%21.6%22.7%22.7%21.9%21.6%20.5%21.8%
Stability of real exchange rate*
Positive real interest rate*
NB:* The criterion is not applicable to WAEMU countries
NB:* The criterion is not applicable to WAEMU countries

Box 2:ECOWAS macroeconomic convergence criterion

The macroeconomic convergence framework adopted during the 22nd session of the Conference of Heads of State and Government held in Lomé in December 1999 defined the following criteria:

Primary criteria:

  • Budget deficit ratio (excluding grants)/GDP (commitments) ≤ 4 percent;
  • Inflation rate at end of period ≤ 5 percent;
  • Budget deficit financing by the Central Bank ≤ 10 percent of tax revenues of the previous year;
  • Gross foreign reserves ≥ 6 months of import cover.

Secondary criteria:

  • Prohibition of new arrears and liquidation of all outstanding arrears;
  • Tax ratio revenue/GDP ≥ 20 percent;
  • Wage bill/total tax revenue ≤ 35 percent;
  • Finance ratio of public investment on domestic resources / tax revenue ≥ 20 percent;
  • Positive real interest rates; and
  • Stability of real exchange rate.

3. Implementation of National and Sector-Specific Strategies

3.1. Recent achievements in the implementation of national and sector-specific strategies

69. In 2010, the incidence of poverty increased from 47.4 percent in 2006 to 43.7 percent (down 3.4 percent). Indicators of living conditions have also, for the greater part, improved significantly. In the end, the country will most likely reach 3 of the 8 MDGs namely, universal education, the fight against HIV/AIDS and access to drinking water.

70. Despite these encouraging results, the country still faces major challenges. Mali can only become an emerging country if it meets these challenges:

- very high level of inequalities (even if economic growth is strong, the poor do not benefit. Reliable mechanisms of fair and equitable redistribution of the fruits of economic growth are not yet sufficiently established),

- high population growth which involves heavy financial constraints,

- environmental challenges (including the fight against climate change and its effects, particularly desertification),

- low qualification of labor in most sectors,

- difficulty for entrepreneurs and businesses to get loans to invest,

- low diversification of production,

  • - low level of performance culture,
  • - insufficient functioning of the monitoring-evaluation systems,
  • - the need to significantly improve production, processing and dissemination of statistical data.

3.2. Government’s priorities over the 2012-2017 period

71. Government priorities are part of the goal, the overall objective and the strategic objectives of the GPRSPIII.

72. Its goal in the medium and long term aims at “making Mali an emerging country and an agro-pastoral power, with a good quality life for the people, men and women.”

73. The overall objective is to accelerate the implementation of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), through inclusive development based on the reduction of poverty and inequality.

74. The 2012-2017 GPRSP has three strategic objectives: (i) building a transformed and fully integrated economy in regional and global trade, (ii) improving the social well-being of populations, (iii) consolidating the option to make Mali a country that is well governed, secure, stable and at peace with all its people.

75. It is based on three strategic axes:

  • - Axis 1: Promoting sustainable growth which creates employment;
  • - Axis 2: Equal access to quality social services;
  • - Axis 3: Strengthening governance and structural reforms.

3.3. Sector-specific analysis of the 2012-2017 budget framework

76. Analyzing sector-specific projections for the implementation of public policies will be assessed through sector-specific allocations relative to recurrent costs and sector allocations relative to the overall budget. This analysis is carried out according to the GPRSP orientation axes.

77. Thus, budgetary effort in favor of Axis 1: “promoting sustainable growth which creates employment” assessed through ratios relative to the overall budget and the budget for Axis 2: “equitable access to quality social services” will be assessed through ratios relative to recurrent costs.

Table 32:Total sector-specific expenses (FCFA billions)
AXES/SECTORSAmount 2007-2011201220132014201520162017Amount 2012-2017Growth rate 2012-2017
PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE GROWTH WHICH CREATES EMPLOYMENT170.6436.2472.9524.8569.9624.7729.23367.710.82%
AGRICULTURE666.2188.9207.3229.4248.1270.6309.01453.310.34%
MINE-IND-COM-ART-TOUR-MICROFIN & ENERGY336.984.189.6100.0108.5119.7135.2637.19.97%
TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATION667.4153.2166.3183.5200.3220.4266.81189.511.73%
EMPLOYMENT42.110.110.711.912.914.018.277.812.50%
EQUAL ACCESS TO QUALITY SOCIAL SERVICES1862.0532.570.0639.5702.0772.8853.34069.99.90%
EDUCATION1043.1297.3315.9354.2392.4438.6475.92274.39.87%
HEALTH436.2119.4128.0142.7154.5165.1180.3890.08.59%
URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND HOUSING15.45.17.38.78.68.414.352.522.75%
SANITATION AND POTABLE WATER SUPPLY80.340.442.445.749.052.168.3297.911.06%
OTHER SOCIAL SECTORS277.070.076.488.297.5108.5114.5566.110.34%
CONSOLIDATION OF GOVERNANCE AND STRUCTURAL REFORMS1150.0277.3293.6323.6353.6383.4434.32066.89.39%
GOVERNMENT AND ADMINISTRATION581.3141.8150.9168.2184.5202.9225.41073.79.71%
DIPLOMACY AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS107.927.028.131.435.038.342.1202.09.26%
NATIONAL DEFENSE AND INTERNAL SECURITY460.8108.5114.6123.9134.1142.2166.9790.29.00%
DEBT280.7126.1103.6105.6107.7110.2111.9147.6665.1−2.36%
UNDISTRIBUTED STAFFING502.3109.2130.3148.3155.3176.9147.6867.66.20%
TOTAL5486.51481.11570.41741.71888.42068.12276.311026.18.98%
Table 33:Ratio relative to total sector-specific costs
AXES/SECTORSAverage 2007-2011201220132014201520162017Average 2012-2017
PROMOTE SUSTAINABLE AND JOB CREATING GROWTH30.66%29.45%30.11%30.13%30.18%30.21%32.03%30.36%
AGRICULTURE11.98%12.75%13.20%13.17%13.14%13.08%13.57%13.15%
MINE-IND-COM-ART-TOUR-MICROFIN & ENERGY6.04%5.68%5.71%5.74%5.75%5.79%5.94%5.77%
TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATION11.84%10.34%10.53%10.53%10.61%10.66%11.72%10.73%
EMPLOYMENT0.80%0.68%0.68%0.68%0.68%0.68%0.80%0.70%
EQUAL ACCESS TO QUALITY SOCIAL SERVICES33.50%35.94%36.29%36.72%37.17%37.37%37.49%36.83%
EDUCATION19.07%20.07%20.11%20.34%20.78%21.21%20.91%20.57%
HEALTH7.91%8.06%8.15%8.19%8.18%7.98%7.92%8.08%
URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND HOUSING0.23%0.35%0.47%0.50%0.46%0.40%0.63%0.47%
SANITATION AND POTABLE WATER SUPPLY1.19%2.73%2.70%2.62%2.59%2.52%3.00%2.69%
OTHER SOCIAL SECTORS5.11%4.734.865.06%5.16%5.25%5.03%5.02%
CONSOLIDATION OF GOVERNANCE AND STRUCTURAL REFORMS21.28%18.72%18.70%18.58%18.73%18.54%19.08%18.72%
GOVERNMENT AND ADMINISTRATION10.76%9.57%9.61%9.66%9.77%9.81%9.90%9.72%
DIPLOMACY AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS2.00%1.83%1.79%1.80%1.85%1.85%1.85%1.83%
NATIONAL DEFENSE AND INTERNAL SECURITY8.52%7.32%7.30%7.12%7.10%6.87%7.33%7.17%
DEBT5.00%8.51%6.60%6.06%5.70%5.33%4.92%6.19%
UNDISTRIBUTED STAFFING9.56%7.38%8.30%8.51%8.22%8.55%6.48%7.91%
Table 34:Recurrent sector-specific costs (FCFA billions)
AXES/SECTORSAverage 2007-2011201220132014201520162017Average 2012-2017
PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE GROWTH WHICH CREATES EMPLOYMENT257.660.666.077.285.396.2106.3490
AGRICULTURE101.823.525.729.733.236.940.9189.9
MINE-IND-COM-ART-TOUR-MICROFIN & ENERGY56.512.914.016.518.220.522.9105.0
TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATION79.820.221.825.828.231.635.4162.9
EMPLOYMENT19.54.14.45.15.66.37.032.6
EQUAL ACCESS TO QUALITY SOCIAL SERVICES1269.9390.9414.8473.7529.2595.6670.43074.5
EDUCATION803.1252.7267.2303.4338.8382.1430.91975.1
HEALTH277.782.386.999.4111.0124.5139.7643.9
URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND HOUSING1.71.91.01.11.31.41.57.3
SANITATION AND POTABLE WATER SUPPLY4.02.42.73.03.43.84.219.5
OTHER SOCIAL SECTORS183.552.557.066.774.783.894.1428.7
CONSOLIDATION OF GOVERNANCE AND STRUCTURAL REFORMS866.2220.9226.7249.1274.5300.2328.41599.7
GOVERNMENT AND ADMINISTRATION366.699.0102.5115.3128.1142.1157.6744.7
DIPLOMACY AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS100.424.925.428.430.734.839.3183.5
NATIONAL DEFENSE AND INTERNAL SECURITY400.297.098.8106.3115.7123.3131.4671.5
UNDISTRIBUTED STAFFING76.410.912.414.115.817.920.291.3
TOTAL2470.1683.3719.7814.0904.81008.91125.35256.1
Table 35:Ratios relative to recurrent sector-specific costs
AXES/SECTORSAverage 2007-2011201220132014201520162017Average 2012-2017
PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE GROWTH WHICH CREATES EMPLOYMENT10.57%8.87%9.16%9.48%9.42%9.44%9.45%9.30%
AGRICULTURE4.18%3.44%3.57%3.65%3.67%3.65%3.64%3.60%
MINE-IND-COM-ART-TOUR-MICROFIN & ENERGY.2.30%1.88%1.94%2.03%2.02%2.03%2.04%1.99%
TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATION3.28%2.95%3.03%3.17%3.12%3.13%3.14%3.09%
EMPLOYMENT0.80%0.60%0.62%0.63%0.62%0.62%0.63%0.62%
EQUAL ACCESS TO QUALITY SOCIAL SERVICES50.96%57.20%57.63%58.19%58.49%59.04%59.57%58.36%
EDUCATION32.17%36.96%37.12%37.27%37.45%37.87%38.30%37.50%
HEALTH11.13%12.05%12.08%12.21%12.27%12.34%12.41%12.23%
URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND HOUSING0.06%0.14%0.14%0.14%0.14%0.14%0.14%0.14%
SANITATION AND POTABLE WATER SUPPLY0.14%0.36%0.37%0.37%0.38%0.37%0.37%0.37%
OTHER SOCIAL SECTORS7.46%7.68%7.91%8.19%8.25%8.31%8.36%8.12%
CONSOLIDATION OF GOVERNANCE AND STRUCTURAL REFORMS35.18%32.33%31.49%30.60%30.34%29.75%29.18%30.62%
GOVERNMENT AND ADMINISTRATION14.79%14.49%14.24%14.17%14.16%14.09%14.01%14.19%
DIPLOMACY AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS4.09%3.64%3.53%3.49%3.40%3.45%3.49%3.50%
NATIONAL DEFENSE AND INTERNAL SECURITY16.30%14.20%13.72%12.94%12.79%12.22%11.66%12.92%
UNDISTRIBUTED STAFFING3%2%2%2%2%2%2%1.73%

3.3.1. Axis 1: Promoting Sustainable Growth Which Creates Employment

78. The objective set in the 2012-2017 GPRSP is to successfully attain the goal of 6.1 percent average economic growth. For this purpose, as part of the strategic objective: “to build an economy which is transformed, diversified and fully integrated in regional and global trade,” axis 1 of the GPRSP has as specific objectives: (i) promoting rural development; (ii) developing industry and services, (iii) promoting trade, (iv) connecting the country with a network of modern infrastructure, (v) improving the financing of sectors, and (vi) promoting job and income creation.

79. It covers intervention areas on: (i) Rural development, (ii) Mines and Hydrocarbons, (iii) Industry, (iv) Crafts (v) Tourism (vi) Trade (vii) Micro-finance; (viii) Transportation (ix) Information and Communication Technology, (x) Energy and (xi) Employment.

80. The budget framework seeks to achieve these goals. There are also plans to spend an average of 30.35 percent of the total budget for the development of this axis, or an average annual increase of 10.82 percent between 2012 and 2017. In absolute terms, allocations to this axis will increase from 436.2 billion in 2012 to 729.2 FCFA in 2017.

• Agricultural Sector

81. The “Rural Development” sector covers the Department of Agriculture, the Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries and the Food Security Commission.

82. Its average share in the MTBF is estimated at 13.15 percent. We remember that the budget allocation goal in the agricultural sector in Maputo is 10 percent.

83. Sector allocations will increase from 188.9 billion in 2012 to 309.0 billion in 2017, an average annual growth of 10.34 percent.

Priority will be given to the achievement of the following:

In the field of agriculture:

  • - increasing crop yields and agricultural production through sustainable practices;
  • - creating synergy among the various stakeholders;
  • - organizing producers;
  • - improving soil conservation;
  • - developing hydro-agricultural and water conservation;
  • - strengthening rural facilities;
  • - improving the quality of agricultural inputs to farmers;
  • - improved monitoring of the implementation of legislation and phytosanitary regulations;
  • - developing and disseminating techniques and technologies to improve production;
  • - modernizing family agricultural holdings;
  • - promoting the transformation of surplus agricultural production;
  • - organizing the enforcement of legislation and regulations relating to quality control and the packaging of products and foodstuffs of plant origin on the market;
  • - strengthening management capacity.

In the area of livestock: disseminating techniques and technologies to improve production and the animal industries;

  • - implementing a credit system adapted to the financing of production activities and the livestock industry;
  • - implementing the strategy of enhancement of local raw milk;
  • - conducting and managing pastoral developments (water points, cattle tracks, firebreaks, regeneration of pastures, rehabilitation of degraded pastures, improvement of access roads etc.);
  • - implement the three-year fodder crop production plan;
  • - strengthening the capacity of professionals in production and in the animal industries;
  • - building and equipping marketing infrastructure (cattle markets), processing (milk processing units, slaughter by-products, slaughter area management) and conservation of livestock products and by products;
  • - developing and implementing a zootechnical herd monitoring plan;
  • - rehabilitating slaughterhouses.

• Mining Industry, Industry-Trade, Crafts-Tourism, Microfinance and Energy

84. Credits allocated to the sector in 2012 reached 84.1 billion and will reach 135.2 billion in 2017, or an average growth of 9.97 percent and an average share of 5.77 percent. They will help to implement the following relevant actions:

In the field of mining:

  • - improving the legal and institutional framework of the mining sector;
  • - promoting mining potential and ensuring the diversification of mining production;
  • - promoting gold panning;
  • - promoting oil exploration activities;
  • - improving transparency and management of mining incomes;
  • - strengthening the technical capacity of institutions involved in promoting the mining sector;
  • - promoting socioeconomic development actions in Gold mining areas to the benefit of communities, particularly that of women and the youth.

In the “industry-trade” fields:

  • - improving the business climate and developing infrastructure;
  • - strengthening the fight against fraud, counterfeiting and unfair competition;
  • - facilitating access to finance;
  • - restructuring and upgrading industrial companies;
  • - strengthening the capacity of industrial units, support structures and developing subcontracting and intra- and intercompany relationships;
  • - promoting standardization, quality, industrial property and industrial maintenance;
  • - strengthening the industrial base;
  • - promoting innovation and technology transfers;
  • - building capacity and skills;
  • - building dealers’ equipment;
  • - meeting wholesalers’ storage needs;
  • - establishing a central purchasing for wholesalers;
  • - supporting private sector management structures;
  • - strengthening the capacity of traders and particularly retailers;
  • - strengthening the capacity of structures in charge of trade;
  • - establishing a unique coding system of traceability for food products;
  • - technical capacity building, equipment, organization of women engaged in cross border trade.

In the field of handicrafts and tourism:

  • - strengthening the institutional, regulatory and organizational framework of the sector;
  • - improving productivity and competitiveness of small businesses;
  • - developing appropriate financing systems;
  • - improving access to commercial markets;
  • - strengthening information systems and support mechanisms for decision making;
  • - developing new tourist attractions;
  • - developing and upgrading the tourism product;
  • - highlighting the tourism potential of the region;
  • - developing community tourism, while respecting the principles of sustainable development;
  • - strengthening the capacity of stakeholders of the sector;
  • - strengthening the regulatory framework of the tourism sector;
  • - promoting Mali as a destination;
  • - strengthening the OMATHO organizational system;
  • - modernizing statistical information systems on tourism;
  • - promoting ecotourism.

In the field of microfinance:

  • - strengthening and harmonizing economic policies favoring the creation, development and sustainability of microfinance;
  • - ensuring compliance of the Decentralized Financial Services (DFS) with the new regulations on microfinance;
  • - strengthening and improving monitoring of the sector;
  • - operationalizing the Center for support and promotion of the sector;
  • - improving the organization and governance of DFSs.

In the field of energy:

  • - improving the coverage of the country in energy products and services;
  • - facilitating conditions of access to energy services;
  • - preparing draft regulations and standards for protection against risks related to energy;
  • - undertaking IEC activities;
  • - strengthening the capacity of technical services of the energy sector;
  • - maintaining the national Energy Information System (EIS);
  • - enhancing the country’s energy potential;

• Transportation and Communication Sector

85. A budget of 153.2 billion is estimated for the “transport and communication” sector for 2012, compared to 266.8 billion in 2017, representing an average growth of 11.73 percent and an average share of 10.73 percent. Priority will be given to the following:

In the field of transport:

  • - maintaining the routine maintenance of roads;
  • - constructing new priority paved roads (project execution) and building local and communal roads;
  • - rehabilitating paved roads;
  • - rehabilitating the Dakar-Bamako railway line;
  • - building wharfs in river ports of call;
  • - constructing and expanding the airports in the country,
  • - continuing the cloud seeding and climate change;
  • - taking into account all environmental and socio-economic aspects of the country;
  • - reducing insecurity (road, rail, air and river).

In the field of Information and Communication Technology:

  • - preparing and implementing public and private media development policy;
  • - developing and disseminating audiovisual creation;
  • - developing and implementing the development policy of new information and communication technologies;
  • - developing the use of new information and communication technologies in all areas of economic, social and cultural life;
  • - developing the postal activity and timely delivery of mails both inside and outside the country;
  • - ensuring full national television coverage;
  • - ensuring the transition from analogue to digital television;
  • - increasing the supply of telephone services and facilitating access to a great many users, particularly in rural areas;
  • - improving network coverage in rural communities.

• Employment Sector

86. For this sector, 10.1 billion is estimated in 2012, compared to 18.2 billion in 2017, representing an average growth of 12.50 percent and an average share of 0.70 percent. The following actions are retained:

  • - developing the quality of labor supply;
  • - improving the institutional framework governing the labor market and the functioning of this market;
  • - focusing on targeted measures most likely to give a second chance to the youths (and adults) who left the initial education system with insufficient qualifications and skills;
  • - promoting job creation in the public service;
  • - promoting informal employment;
  • - increasing local employment.

3.3.2. Axis 2: Equal Access To Quality Social Services

87. Several objectives will be pursued to improve the social well-being of populations::

  • - reducing the population growth rate;
  • - correcting gender disparities at all levels;
  • - fighting against violence towards women;
  • - increasing access of human resources to knowledge and skills;
  • - eliminating food insecurity, hunger and malnutrition;
  • - promoting job and income creation;
  • - strengthening the health of populations;
  • - reducing social inequalities;
  • - ensuring environmental sustainability and a good living environment.

88. These objectives will be accomplished under seventeen areas of intervention: (i) population, (ii) migration, (iii) Gender Inequalities and violence against girls (iv) Education, (v) Vocational training, (vi) Youth and Sport, (vii) Culture; (viii) Food Security (ix) Nutrition (x) Health (xi) The fight against HIV and AIDS (xii) Child Protection (xiii) Social protection and fight against vulnerabilities, (xiv) Water, (xv) Sanitation, (xvi) Environment and (xvii) Urban planning and housing.

89. Allocations for this axis will rise from 532.3 billion FCFA in 2012 to 853.3 billion in 2017, an average growth of 9.90 percent for an average weight of 37.49 percent.

Education Sector

90. The “Education” sector includes the Ministry of Education, Literacy and National Languages, the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research and the sub-sector of vocational training.

91. Its average share in the MTBF is estimated at 20.57 percent. Sector allocations will increase from 297.3 billion in 2012 to 475.9 in 2017, an average annual growth of 9.87 percent. Concerning recurrent costs, the sector’s share has an average of 37.50 percent.

92. They aim at achieving the following actions:

Field of “Education and Vocational Training”

93. To ensure quality, equity and efficiency of the education system, the following actions will be taken:

In terms of Early Childhood (PE) and Preschool Education

  • - development of a preschool curriculum;
  • - quality development in preschool institutions through initial training of preschool teachers and the continuous training of animators/facilitators;
  • - establishment of an inspectorate of preschool education integrated in the inspectorate of national education;
  • - establishment of a mechanism for monitoring activities carried out within the framework of early childhood development at local, regional, and national levels;
  • - establishment of a reliable statistical information system.

Children with special educational needs (EBES)

  • - the establishment of an appropriate monitoring-evaluation mechanism;
  • - support programs in basic and continuous training of teachers in methods of appropriate supervision adapted to different kinds of disabilities;
  • - the introduction of pre-professional training in special education institutions;
  • - support of EBES in mainstream schools for children with “mild disability” and in special education institutions for children with “severe disabilities”.

Girl education

  • - the introduction of incentives to stimulate demand for schooling for girls;
  • - developing a strategy for educational support to girl domestic workers;
  • - capacity building of basic community agencies including School Management Committees (SMC -with greater participation of women) in charge of girls’ education and Associations of Mothers of students (MEAs);
  • - consideration and effective implementation of gender issues in the curriculum of IFMs and the continuous training of teachers;

Basic education, basic education curriculum

  • - capacity building for curriculum development;
  • - capacity building of actors involved in the implementation of the general curriculum;
  • - developing specific programs for madrasas;
  • - developing specific programs for Koranic schools to integrate them in the school system;
  • - curriculum development taking into account aspects related to HIV and AIDS;
  • - introducing environmental education in school curricula.

Textbooks, library books and didactic materials

  • - gradual establishment of a textbook supply mechanism in conformity with the curriculum for all schools including community schools and madrasas;
  • - capacity building of local authorities, and devolved services procurement, distribution and repair of manuals;
  • - developing adapted educational materials, particularly textbooks for improved Islamic schools and madrassas;

Access

  • - constructing, equipping and rehabilitating classrooms;
  • - accelerating the transfer of financial resources to communities;
  • - achieving school infrastructure taking into account girls and children with special educational needs;
  • - establishing an accelerated education program for illiterate children aged 8 to 12 years;
  • - establishing a management and monitoring mechanism on school feeding at community level;
  • - Strengthening and improving educational provision.

Completion

  • -improving and respecting school time;
  • -reducing the size of classes;
  • -reducing repetition and abandonment;
  • -improving the quality of educational management (peers, experienced teachers, principals, counselors).

Normal Education

  • -implementing the new curriculum of normal education including that of preschool teacher training school (IFM/Preschool);
  • -reducing teacher specialization (the versatility of teachers and teachers in charge of practical training and introduction to trades);
  • -a policy of positive discrimination in favor of student teachers;
  • -capacity building of human resources and management structures of pedagogic, technical and administrative plans;
  • -examination reforms;
  • -increasing the number of IFMs;
  • -creation of all fields (general education considering preschool and special education) in each IFM;
  • -maintenance of the SARPE training based on Approach For Competence (APC);
  • -generalization of Virtual Training Centers (CVF) in IFMs.

Informal Education

  • -increasing the absorption capacity of informal education structures;
  • -establishing and operationalizing canteens in CEDs of areas of food insecurity;
  • -implementing the Vigorous Program for Literacy and Promotion of National Languages;
  • -establishing an appropriate monitoring-evaluation mechanism;
  • -establishing a funding mechanism for informal education.

General Secondary Education (GSS)

  • -Increasing national coverage;
  • -establishing the GSS curriculum;
  • -establishing an educational and administrative management oriented towards devolution and decentralization;
  • -strengthening State control mechanisms over private institutions;
  • -capacity building of teachers;
  • -implementing the policy of textbook and instructional materials;
  • -creating new series and fields;
  • -gradual reduction of the number of students entering the General Secondary.

Higher Education

  • -redefining the architecture of training courses in accordance with the LMD reform (Bachelor Degree-Master-Doctorate);
  • - establishing a quality assurance system;
  • - establishing incentives for private higher education;
  • - defining and implementing a distance learning policy;
  • - establishing a monitoring tool for the integration of graduates;
  • - establishing an information and management system.

Vocational training

  • - strengthening the continuous education system;
  • - strengthening the agricultural vocational training system for greater professionalization of rural actors;
  • - strengthening the training system through apprenticeship (dual type, alternation, traditional, skills training);
  • - strengthening the absorption capacity;
  • - promoting private investment in Vocational Training;
  • - improving information on needs and training options;
  • - encouraging and developing partnerships between vocational training centers and companies;
  • - developing a strategy for the training of trainers, master trainers and local trainers;
  • - strengthening physical capacities of training organizations;
  • - developing appropriate training programs in partnership with relevant professional organizations;
  • - certifying apprenticeship and validating acquired experience;
  • - creating links among different Vocational Training systems;
  • - encouraging and developing regional cooperation and integration;
  • - establishing a monitoring and insertion system of graduates;
  • - facilitating access of women and girls;
  • - facilitating access of vulnerable groups.

• Health Sector

  • A budget of 119.4 billion is estimated in 2012 compared to 180.3 billion in 2017, representing an average growth of 8.59 percent and an average share of 8.08 percent. Concerning recurrent costs, the sector’s share has an average of 12.23 percent.

94. The actions are:

  • - Improving the performance of the health system by integrating its population base and strengthening its management and delivery of quality care by:
  • developing conditions for the sustainability of the community health centers, particularly the community-based approach, the availability of qualified personnel, the launching and close monitoring of such institutions;
  • developing basic health care in communities across the country by expanding the functional connections of the health pyramid;
  • strengthening innovative initiatives to promote family planning as a means of reducing maternal mortality and that of children under the age of 0-5 years;
  • developing appropriate strategies to improve the accessibility and effectiveness of the system of reference;
  • developing a comprehensive approach of improving the quality of services;
  • developing Public-Private Partnership to achieve the expected results;
  • strengthening governance of the pharmaceutical system;
  • implementing the national policy of health equipment;
  • - Accountability of actors and strengthening solidarity controlling the development of the sector;
  • - Reducing incidence through intensification the expansion of programs and interventions promoting prevention, care, treatment, support to infected and/or affected people, families, communities, and contributing to mitigating the socioeconomic impacts of HIV and AIDS.

• Planning and Housing Sector

95. The average share in the MTBF is estimated at 0.47 percent. Sector allocations will increase from 5.1 billion in 2012 to 14.3 billion in 2017, an average annual growth of 22.75 percent.

96. They aim at achieving the following actions:

  • - facilitating access to housing within a serviced framework for many citizens;
  • - promoting respect for building and planning regulations; Controlling the growth of cities;
  • - reconciling modern law with customary land rights;
  • - ensuring the coherence of estate and land policy with political orientations that guide other major social and economic sectors;
  • - implementing a decentralized management of land resources for coherent territorial development;
  • - developing strategies for effective implementation of territorial planning documents and creating a legal framework for regional planning,
  • - establishing a multifaceted control system of estate and land management;
  • - strengthening control and establishing an eased land observatory;
  • - restructuring and modernizing estate and land management;
  • - establishing effective and appropriate training strategies of stakeholders in land and estate management;
  • - implementing and tailoring the land registry, an effective and essential estate and land management tool;
  • - implementing an efficient and responsive tax system;
  • - land tenure security and access of women to land.

• Sanitation and Water Supply Sector

97. For this sector, 40.4 billion is estimated in 2012 compared to 68.3 billion in 2017, representing an average growth of 11.06 percent and an average share of 2.69 percent. The following have been retained:

In the field of sanitation:

  • - improving access of the Malian population to a public service and sustainable sanitation facilities;
  • - ensuring proper management of solid and special wastes (hospitals, industries, etc..).

In the area of WATER:

  • - building new potable water supply infrastructures;
  • - rehabilitating old potable water supply infrastructures;
  • - establishing a national information system on functional water;
  • - improving the allocation of water resources among different users;
  • - helping actors to adhere to the IWRM concept;
  • - establishing a legal, regulatory and financial environment for the Integrated Management of Water Resources;
  • - improving the protection of water resources;
  • - mobilizing and exploiting surface water resources in a rational manner;
  • - improving the navigability of major rivers;
  • - improving coverage of water needs in pastoral areas;
  • - optimizing infrastructural investment costs of drinking water supply;
  • - improving the durability of hydraulic investments;
  • - establishing and operationalizing an appropriate institutional and organizational framework for the management of water resources;
  • - strengthening the response capacity of state structures in the field of water;
  • - ensuring that local authorities are able to fulfill their role in the water sector.

• Other Social Sectors

98. “Other social sectors” include the Ministry of Culture, Ministry of Youth and Sports, the Ministry of the Promotion of Women, Children and the Family and the Ministry of Social Development, Solidarity and the Elderly.

99. For this sector, 70 billion FCFA is estimated in 2012 compared to 114.5 billion in 2017, representing an average growth of 10.34 percent and an average share of 5.02 percent. The actions proposed are:

In the field of social protection and the fight against vulnerabilities and child protection: reducing social inequalities

- improving the efficiency of the system of social ruling through reforming existing programs and conceiving new ones;

- reforming the social insurance system;

- improving access of the child to basic social services and strengthening its protection against Violence, Abuse, Exploitation and Neglect (VAEN);

- improving knowledge on the issue of promoting and protecting the child by producing and disseminating reliable information;

- adopting and implementing adequate legislation on the legal and judicial protection of the child;

- establishing an institutional framework conducive for child development and strengthening of community protection mechanisms.

In youth-sports-culture, it concerns:

  • - placing the entire cultural sector under better working conditions;
  • - providing structural reinforcement of different cultural industries and developing their their performance;
  • - strengthening the role and place of culture in all areas of sector-specific policy. 100. The objectives in the 2012-2017 GPRSP on youth are better integration of the youth in social life and the development of job search skills through:
  • - socio-educational supervision of youths;
  • - equal participation of girls and boys in youth activities;
  • - training and integrating young people;
  • - promoting adolescent reproductive health.

101. Sporting policy will be based on the following actions: (i) institutional framework, (ii) infrastructure, (iii) training, human resources, (iv) promotion of school and university sport, grassroots sport (Urban and rural) (v) Military Sports (vi) the development of sports medicine; (vii) high performance sport; (viii) sport management structures in Mali, competition, (ix) Sports and decentralization, and (x) the financing of sport in Mali.

3.3.3. Axis 3: Consolidating Governance And Structural Reforms

102. The third axis pursues the following objectives: (i) Promoting the restoration of total peace in the country, (ii) Improving the Legal and Judicial framework, (iii) Modernizing public services, (iv) Promoting local development, management outreach and participation, (v) Developing regional and international cooperation, (vi) Strengthening economic governance, (vii) Developing a system for monitoring-evaluation and effective implementation of the GPRSP.

103. It covers intervention areas relating to: (i) Peace and Security, (ii) Justice, (iii) Institutional Development, (iv) Regional Planning (v) Decentralization/Devolution (vi) Integration and Cooperation, (vii) Public Finance Management (viii) the National Statistical System, (ix) Strengthening the coordination of the management of development and monitoring-evaluation, (x) coordination with donors; (xi) Partnership with the Private Sector and Civil Society, (xii) the quality of programs; (xiii) Communication (xiv) macroeconomic and budgetary framework.

104. Allocations for this axis will rise from 277.3 billion FCFA in 2012 to 434.3 billion in 2017, an average growth rate of 9.39 percent for an average weight of 18.72 percent

• Government and Administrative Sector

105. 141.8 billion FCFA is estimated in 2012 against 225.4 billion in 2017, representing an average growth of 9.71 percent and an average share of 9.72 percent. The actions proposed are:

  • - strengthening economic governance;
  • - reorganizing the central State;
  • - improving methods and procedures of managing public affairs;
  • - strengthening devolution;
  • - consolidating decentralization;
  • - developing and strengthening capacities of human resources;
  • - organizing communication and relations with users;
  • - modernizing public finance management by implementing the Government Action Plan for Improvement and Modernization of Public Finance Management (PAGAM-GFP);
  • - strengthening the national statistical system.

• Diplomacy and Foreign Affairs Sector

106. It is expected that expenses related to diplomacy and foreign affairs will amount to 27 billion FCFA in 2012 compared to 42.1 billion in 2017, an average growth of 9.26 percent and an average share of 1.83 percent. The actions are:

  • - the implementation of agreements on the free movement of persons, rights of residence and establishment within ECOWAS, and the implementation of ECOWAS’ trade liberalization scheme;
  • - continued advocacy for sensitization actions towards the adherence of the population and integration stakeholders to the ideal of African integration;
  • - the implementation of the Action Plan of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM);
  • - monitoring-evaluation of the National Action Plan/APRM.

• National Defense and Internal Security

107. With regard to the national defense industry and internal security, 108.5 billion FCFA is estimated in 2012 compared to 166.9 billion in 2017, representing an average growth of 9 percent and an average share of 7.17 percent.

108. Priority actions will include: (i) the culture of prevention, particularly with regard to disaster management and road insecurity, (ii) capacity building of security forces, (iii) support for the fight against organized crime, (iv) supporting actors in security, and (v) the adoption of a consistent communication strategy.

In the field of justice:

  • - rebuilding the values of justice and the fight against impunity;
  • - strengthening institutional capacity and human resources of judicial structures;
  • - adapting and consolidating the legal framework;
  • - improving access to justice and promoting human and gender rights.

Conclusion

109. The budget framework is characterized by a voluntarist strategy at the level of tax revenues and a strong restriction on the evolution of public spending in order to place an emphasis on the effectiveness of spending. It tries to reconcile macroeconomic stability objectives and the ambitions and challenges of this new strategic framework for the fight against poverty.

110. Thus, at the level of public finance, it will be a question of meeting the challenge of spending efficiency in all sectors, on the one hand and, mobilizing internal resources beyond the targets set by the tax transition program on the other hand.

Appendices:
Table of financial operations of the State
Section2011201220132014201520162017Growth rate 07-11 Av.Growth rate 2012-17 Av.
REVENUES, GRANTS1113.31132.81337.51466.71620.71784.81978.611.1%11.8%
Total revenues852.7972.21114.41235.7138.71544.81738.610.6%11.8%
Budget revenues781.2894.81031.01145.71283.01437.91621.311.3%12.3%
Tax revenues731.1836.2966.51074.81205.01352.11526.910.7%12.6%
Direct taxes216.9235.5238.4269.5304.2343.5388.011.0%12.8%
Indirect taxes514.2600.7728.1805.3900.81008.61138.910.5%10.5%
VAT301.0340.1386.6431.2480.9536.6601.011.5%13.6%
Domestic VAT122.5135.8154.4173.3194.4217.7243.412.0%12.1%
VAT on imports178.5204.3232.2257.9286.5318.9357.611.2%12.4%
Domestic taxes on oil product24.17.048.056.065.276.990.6−9.9%11.8%
Taxes on imports (DD and taxes)98.4113.3136.4145.1155.9183.0226.212.1%66.9%
Other rights and taxes127.7180.3199.1216.9245.2261.3273.910.7%8.7%
Exemption refunding−4.0−5.0−100.0%
VAT credit refunding−33.0−35.042.043.946.349.2−52.7−0.8%8.5%
Non-tax revenues (Budget)50.158.664.570.978.085.894.422.4%10.0%
Spec-fds-revenues and ann. Budget71.577.483.490.097.7106.9117.34.3%8.7%
Grants260.6160.6231.0231.0240.0240.0240.012.9%8.4%
Projects167.385.9148.4156.3165.3165.3165.320.4%14.0%
Budgets47.446.446.446.446.446.446.4−1.6%0.0%
Budget support45.928.328.328.328.328.328.313.3%0.0%
Section2011201220132014201520162017Growth rate 07-11 Av.Growth rate 2012-17 Av.
Total spending, Net Loans1358.31349.81524.81662.21809.11988.42197.010.4%10.2%
Budget spending1290.81274.51443.51574.31713.61883.82082.09.3%10.3%
Current expenditures707.7795.7849.0933.01026.71147.01301.112.8%10.3%
Staff269.7306.8333.3362.3412.3453.1506.713.5%10.6%
Civil servants208.8227.8247.5269.0308.0336.4376.210.6%10.6%
Contract workers (HIPC)60.979.085.893.3104.3116.7130.527.5%10.6%
Goods and services229.5250.5258.2294.4313.4364.0435.69.2%11.7%
Equipment90.397.0105.6116.4126.3137.0158.011.7%10.3%
HIPC grant0.00.00.00.00.20.20.2
Communication – energy30.130.735.940.245.354.160.96.5%14.7%
Relocation and transportation37.742.647.754.462.071.286.93.7%15.3%
Elections14.017.01.610.11.86.016.5−0.9%−0.6%
Other expenditures on goods and services57.463.267.473.377.795.4113.015.0%12.3%
Transfers and incentive payments183.5204.8223.3241.3265.0293.0320.916.7%9.4%
Stock markets15.017.819.622.023.526.329.627.9%10.7%
Safety net10.010.010.010.010.010.010.03.5%0.0%
Water – electricity incentive payments20.015.020.020.020.020.020.05.9%
Agricultural inputs25.830.035.737.441.846.852.611.9%
CRM incentive payments11.215.920.021.023.526.329.6−14.4%13.2%
Other transfers and incentive payments99.5114.1118.0130.9146.2163.6179.111.8%9.4%
Interests owed25.133.634235.036.036.937.915.9%2.4%
Domestic debt8.014.114214.514.915.315.731.2%2.2%
Foreign debt17.119.520.020.521.121.622.211.1%2.6%
Capital expenditure583.1478.8594.5641.3686.9736.8780.94.9%10.3%
Foreign borrowing371.1298.0374.8397.4423.1444.7468.23.2%9.5%
Loans157.9183.8198.1212.8229.5251.1274.68.4%
Grants167.385.9148.4156.3165.3165.3165.314.0%
Budget support45.928.328.328.328.328.328.30.0%
Domestic financing (Equip – Invest.)212.0180.8219.7243.9263.8292.1312.77.1%11.6%
Trust fund and budget schedule expenses71.577.483.490.097.7106.9117.34.3%8.7%
Net loans−4.0−2.1−2.1−2.2−2.2−2.3−2.3−46.2%2.6%
Sections2011201220132014201520162017
FINANCING245.0217.0187.3195.4188.4203.6218.3
Foreign financing (net)174.2184.2197.7211.2226.8246.8268.6
Loans202.6225.9240.5255.2271.9293.5317.0
Projects157.9183.8198.1212.8229.5251.1274.6
Budget loans44.742.142.442.442.442.442.4
Amortization−40.8−53.3−54.4−55.6−56.7−58.3−60.0
Debt relief (HIPC)12.411.611.611.611.611.611.6
Domestic financing (net)70.832.8−10.4−15.8−38.4−43.2−50.3
FINANCING GAP0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Section2011201220132014201520162017Growth rate 07-11 Av.Growth rate 2012-17 Av.
G.D.P.5107.95495.95918.96390.76935.87590.18330.38.7%
Budget revenues (% GDP)15.3%16.3%17.4%17.9%18.5%18.9%19.5%14.9%18.1%
Total revenues (% GDP)16.7%17.7%18.8%19.3%19.9%20.4%20.9%16.6%19.5%
Tax revenues (% GDP)14.3%15.2%16.3%16.8%17.4%17.8%18.3%14.2%17.0%
Non-tax revenues (% GDP)1.0%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%0.8%1.1%
Grants (% GDP)5.1%2.9%3.8%3.6%3.5%3.2%2.9%4.2%3.3%
Total expenditures and net loans (% GDP)26.6%24.6%25.8%26.0%26.1%26.2%26.4%24.3%25.8%
Budget spending (% GDP)25.3%23.2%24.4%24.6%24.7%24.8%25.0%22.7%24.5%
Current expenditures (% GDP)13.9%14.5%14.3%14.6%14.8%15.1%15.6%13.0%14.8%
Capital expenditure (% GDP)11.4%8.7%10.0%10.0%9.9%9.7%9.4%9.7%9.6%
HIPC expenditures (% GDP)1.5%1.6%1.4%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.6%1.2%1.5%
Overall balance (commitment base) including grants (% GDP)

Overall balance (commitment base) excluding grants (% GDP)

Basic fiscal balance (% GDP)

Basic fiscal balance excluding HIPC (% GDP)
−4.8%−3.9%−3.2%−3.1%−2.7%−2.7%−2.6%−3.4%−3.0%
−9.9%−6.9%−6.9%−6.7%−6.2%−5.8%−5.5%−7.7%−6.3%
−1.7%−0.6%0.2%0.3%0.6%0.6%0.7%−0.7%0.3%
−1.5%−0.4%0.4%0.5%0.8%0.8%0.8%−0.4%0.5%
Basic fiscal balance excluding HIPC and interests (% GDP)−0.7%0.8%1.4%1.6%1.9%2.0%2.1%−0.1%1.6%
Primary balance, grants included (% GDP) 3/−4.3%−3.3%−2.6%−6.1%−5.7%−5.4%−5.0%−5.6%−4.7%
Basic primary balance (% GDP) 4/−2.1%−0.8%0.0%0.1%0.4%0.5%0.6%−1.3%0.1%
Public savings (individual) (% GDP) 5/1.4%1.8%3.1%3.3%3.7%3.8%3.8%2.0%3.3%
National public savings (% GDP) 6/6.2%4.4%6.5%6.6%6.9%6.7%6.5%5.9%6.3%
Budget aid (% GDP)2.0%1.8%1.7%1.6%1.4%1.3%1.2%2.1%1.5%
Wage bill / tax revenues36.9%36.7%34.5%33.7%34.2%33.5%33.2%35.2%34.3%
Equipment-Investment / tax revenues29.0%21.6%22.7%22.7%21.9%21.6%20.5%26.9%21.8%
Current expenditures excluding HIPC/GDP12.4%12.9%12.9%13.1%13.3%13.6%14.0%11.7%13.3%
Wage bill excluding HIPC / tax revenues28.6%27.2%25.6%25.0%25.6%24.9%24.6%28.9%25.5%
Equipment-Investment excluding HIPC/tax revenues27.6%20.8%22.7%22.7%21.9%21.6%20.5%25.2%21.7%
Wage bill (% GDP)5.3%5.6%5.6%5.7%5.9%6.0%6.1%5.0%5.8%
Interests / (% GDP)0.5%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.5%
1

The year 2011 is a forecast.

Other Resources Citing This Publication