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World Economic Outlook, April 2019

Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery

The global economic expansion decelerated in the second half of 2018 with global growth projected to slow to 3.3 percent in 2019, with risks to future growth on the downside.

World Economic Outlook, April 2019

Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery

The global economic expansion decelerated in the second half of 2018 with global growth projected to slow to 3.3 percent in 2019, with risks to future growth on the downside.

Is Inflation Domestic or Global? Evidence from Emerging Markets

Is Inflation Domestic or Global? Evidence from Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2018/241

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rudolfs Bems , Francesca Caselli , Francesco Grigoli , Bertrand Gruss , and Weicheng Lian

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484381595.001

ISBN: 9781484381595

Keywords: Globalization, Inflation, Emerging markets, Inflation expectations, Central banks and their policies, Phillips Curve, Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts

Following a period of disinflation during the 1990s and early 2000s, inflation in emerging markets has remained remarkably low and stable. Was this related to a global disinflation environment triggered by China's...

Macroeconomic Performance and Poverty Reduction

Macroeconomic Performance and Poverty Reduction »

Volume/Issue: 2003/72

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anne Epaulard

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451849363.001

ISBN: 9781451849363

Keywords: Growth, Macroeconomic Policies, inflation, terms of trade, transition economies, trade openness, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Measurement and Analysis of Poverty,

This paper investigates the link between macroeconomic performance and the change in the poverty rate among 47 episodes of growth and 52 episodes of economic downturn in developing and transition economies. We show...

Macroeconomic Policies and Poverty Reduction
			: Stylized Facts and an Overview of Research

Macroeconomic Policies and Poverty Reduction : Stylized Facts and an Overview of Research »

Volume/Issue: 2001/135

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Catherine Pattillo , Ratna Sahay , and Paolo Mauro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451855708.001

ISBN: 9781451855708

Keywords: Macroeconomic policies, trade liberalization, distribution of income, external debt, per capita income, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Measurement and Analysis of Poverty, Comparative Studies of Countries,

This paper provides a brief and selective overview of research on the links between macroeconomic policies and poverty reduction. Using the Human Development Index as a measure of well-being, the progress made by 1...

Poverty and Social Impact Analysis
			: Linking Macroeconomic Policies to Poverty Outcomes:  Summary of Early Experiences

Poverty and Social Impact Analysis : Linking Macroeconomic Policies to Poverty Outcomes: Summary of Early Experiences »

Volume/Issue: 2003/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Caroline Kende-Robb

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451846348.001

ISBN: 9781451846348

Keywords: Macroeconomic policies, expenditure, expenditures, impact analysis, household surveys, Welfare and Poverty: General, Measurement and Analysis of Poverty, Economywide Country Studies: Africa,

The objective of this paper is to present some early experiences of poverty and social impact analysis (PSIA) from the PRGF-supported programs in the African Department. The paper illustrates that many staff countr...

Regionalization vs. Globalization

Regionalization vs. Globalization »

Volume/Issue: 2013/19

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hideaki Hirata , Ayhan Kose , and Christopher Otrok

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 January 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557753281.001

ISBN: 9781557753281

Keywords: Comovement, Synchronization, Trade linkages, Financial linkages, business cycle, business cycle synchronization, regional trade, global trade, Bayesian Analysis, Time-Series Models

Abstract: Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution o...

Resource Windfalls, Optimal Public Investment and Redistribution
			: The Role of Total Factor Productivity and Administrative Capacity

Resource Windfalls, Optimal Public Investment and Redistribution : The Role of Total Factor Productivity and Administrative Capacity »

Volume/Issue: 2012/200

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alan Gelb , Arnaud Dupuy , and Rabah Arezki

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475505504.001

ISBN: 9781475505504

Keywords: Resource Windfall, Administrative Capacity, capital investment, investment management, investor protection, public investment programs, Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General, International Lending and Debt Problems,

This paper studies the optimal public investment decisions in countries experiencing a resource windfall. To do so, we use an augmented version of the Permanent Income framework with public investment faced with ad...

Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa
			: Insights from the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM)

Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa : Insights from the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) »

Volume/Issue: 2015/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Derek Anderson , Jorge Canales Kriljenko , Paulo Drummond , Pedro Espaillat , and Dirk Muir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 October 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513557885.001

ISBN: 9781513557885

Keywords: macroeconomic interdepedence, trade, investment, exports, economy, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Open Economy Macroeconomics

What is the impact of economic spillovers from China on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)? This is an increasingly important question because of China's growing economic role as a partner of SSA countriesfor both trade and...

Tanzania's Growth Process and Success in Reducing Poverty

Tanzania's Growth Process and Success in Reducing Poverty »

Volume/Issue: 2005/35

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Volker Treichel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451860542.001

ISBN: 9781451860542

Keywords: Growth, macroeconomic policies in developing countries, per capita income, growth rate, economic growth, growth rates, tfp, Economic Development: General, Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General

Since 1995, Tanzania has made major progress in economic reform and macroeconomic stabilization, resulting in strong growth and low inflation. This paper reviews Tanzania's growth performance and prospects and asse...

Tax Reform and Debt Sustainability in Germany
			: An Assessment Using the Global Fiscal Model

Tax Reform and Debt Sustainability in Germany : An Assessment Using the Global Fiscal Model »

Volume/Issue: 2007/46

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Dennis Botman , and Stephan Danninger

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451866100.001

ISBN: 9781451866100

Keywords: VAT, tax reform, spillover effects, global fiscal model, taxation, fiscal adjustment, tax base, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General

In 2005, the German government announced a far-reaching fiscal adjustment program. This paper uses the IMF’s Global Fiscal Model to study its impact and explores options for addressing long-term pressures fr...

The Elusive Quest for Inclusive Growth
			: Growth, Poverty, and Inequality in Asia

The Elusive Quest for Inclusive Growth : Growth, Poverty, and Inequality in Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2013/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ravi Balakrishnan , Chad Steinberg , and Murtaza Syed

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 June 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475531169.001

ISBN: 9781475531169

Keywords: Inequality, Labor Market, pro-poor, gini, income distribution, Personal Income and Wealth Distribution, Government Policy and Regulation, General, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

This paper assesses how pro-poor and inclusive Asia’s recent growth has been, and what factors have been driving these outcomes. It finds that while poverty has fallen across the region over the last two dec...