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Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S.

Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S. »

Source: Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S.

Volume/Issue: 2012/199

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): John Silvia , Lorenz Kueng , Olivier Coibion , and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2012

ISBN: 9781475505498

Keywords: Consumption Inequality, inflation, contractionary monetary policy, inflation target, monetary shocks, Business Fluctuations, And Cycles, money And Interest Rates, monetary Policy, Central Banking

We study the effects and historical contribution of monetary policy shocks to consumption and income inequality in the United States since 1980. Contractionary monetary policy actions systematically increase inequa...

Oil Prices and the Global Economy

Oil Prices and the Global Economy »

Source: Oil Prices and the Global Economy : Is It Different This Time Around?

Volume/Issue: 2016/210

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kamiar Mohaddes , and M. Pesaran

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2016

ISBN: 9781475552034

Keywords: Economic growth, Markets, Oil, Oil prices, United States, Western Hemisphere, Econometric models, Supply and demand, Vector autoregression, Equity prices

The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the United States and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econ...

Part IV: Living with the Global Cycle

Part IV: Living with the Global Cycle »

Source: Collapse and Revival : Understanding Global Recessions and Recoveries

Series: Books

Author(s): Ayhan Kose , and Marco Terrones

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 December 2015

ISBN: 9781513570020

Keywords: Economic recession, global recession; business cycles; recession and recovery; financial globalization

Chapter Epigraphs [T]here is a danger that recession will feed on itself and that confidence in the future will be progressively sapped throughout the world as cautio...

Regionalization vs. Globalization

Regionalization vs. Globalization »

Source: Regionalization vs. Globalization

Volume/Issue: 2013/19

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hideaki Hirata , Ayhan Kose , and Christopher Otrok

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 January 2013

ISBN: 9781557753281

Keywords: Comovement, Synchronization, Trade linkages, Financial linkages, business cycle, business cycle synchronization, regional trade, global trade, Bayesian Analysis, Time-Series Models

Abstract: Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution o...

The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery1

The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery1 »

Source: The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery

Volume/Issue: 2017/242

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Aqib Aslam , Emine Boz , Eugenio Cerutti , Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro , and Petia Topalova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2017

ISBN: 9781484328279

Keywords: Globalization, Trade policy, International trade, Investment, General, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Trade Forecasting and Simulation, International Business Cycles

Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposi...

Spillovers from Global and Regional Shocks to Armenia1

Spillovers from Global and Regional Shocks to Armenia1 »

Source: Spillovers from Global and Regional Shocks to Armenia

Volume/Issue: 2015/241

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Knarik Ayvazyan , and Teresa Daban Sanchez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 November 2015

ISBN: 9781513590462

Keywords: Spillovers, Trade, Business cycles, Transmission channels, SVAR, economy, trading partners, regional shocks, oil prices, General

Using a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model, this paper examines the size, geographical sources, and transmission channels of global and regional shocks to the Armenian economy. Results show that Armenia...

The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy1

The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy1 »

Source: The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy

Volume/Issue: 2015/259

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 December 2015

ISBN: 9781513509846

Keywords: Tight oil, shale oil, fracking revolution, oil price decline, oil supply, global macroeconometric modeling, international business cycle, oil, prices, oil prices

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2...

Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy

Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy »

Source: Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy : An Empirical Exploration

Volume/Issue: 2003/246

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ayhan Kose , Marco Terrones , and Eswar Prasad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2003

ISBN: 9781451875874

Keywords: macroeconomic fluctuations, volatility, correlations, globalization period, business cycle, growth rates, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, International Factor Movements and International Business,

This paper analyzes the evolution of volatility and cross-country comovement in output, consumption, and investment fluctuations using two distinct datasets. The results suggest that there has been a significant de...