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The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy*

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy* »

Source: The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

Volume/Issue: 2012/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi , and Maziar Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2012

ISBN: 9781475597158

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, exporting countries, Time-Series Models

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-dr...

Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia

Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia »

Source: Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia

Volume/Issue: 2014/80

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alberto Behar , and Jaime Espinosa-Bowen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2014

ISBN: 9781484380796

Keywords: Gravity model, Caucasus, oil exports, oil exporters, exporters, services exports, exporter, Trade Forecasting and Simulation, International Business Cycles,

This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with r...

France in the Global Economy

France in the Global Economy »

Source: France in the Global Economy : A Structural Approximate Dynamic Factor Model Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2007/129

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francisco Nadal De Simone , and Alain Kabundi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2007

ISBN: 9781451866933

Keywords: Dynamic factor models, international business cycles, sign restrictions, fixed capital formation, capital formation, balance of payments, terms of trade, fixed investment,

This study identifies the main shocks that cause fluctuations in French output and their channels of transmission. It uses a large-dimensional structural approximate dynamic factor model. There are three main findi...

Global Business Cycles

Global Business Cycles »

Source: Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling?

Volume/Issue: 2008/143

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ayhan Kose , Eswar Prasad , and Christopher Otrok

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2008

ISBN: 9781451870015

Keywords: macroeconomic fluctuations, convergence, decoupling, business cycle, globalization period, business cycle fluctuations,

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets,...

Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia

Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia »

Source: Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia

Volume/Issue: 2012/86

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

ISBN: 9781475502497

Keywords: central bank, monetary fund, price stability, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation, Kyrgyzstan, Food Price Shocks, Policy Responses,

This paper examines the implications of elevated global food prices for inflation in select Central Asian economies - Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The findings suggest that global fo...

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles*

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles* »

Source: The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

Volume/Issue: 2012/255

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 October 2012

ISBN: 9781475581645

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, macroeconomic shocks, international business cycle, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, oil exports, reer

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GD...

Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy

Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy »

Source: Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy : Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies

Volume/Issue: 2015/23

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi , Luis Felipe Cespedes , and Alessandro Rebucci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 January 2015

ISBN: 9781484346037

Keywords: C32, E44, F44, economies, liquidity, advanced economies, exchange rate, Time-Series Models, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, International Business Cycles

In this paper we first compare house price cycles in advanced and emerging economies using a new quarterly house price data set covering the period 1990-2012. We find that house prices in emerging economies grow fa...

Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring

Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring »

Source: Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring

Volume/Issue: 2011/25

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): S. Boragan Aruoba , Marco Terrones , Ayhan Kose , and Francis Diebold

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2011

ISBN: 9781455216727

Keywords: Expansion, Contraction, Recession, Turning Point, Dynamic factor model, Nowcasting, Real-time analysis, business cycle, business cycles, correlations

We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observati...

Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization?

Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization? »

Source: Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization?

Volume/Issue: 2016/54

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eric Monnet , and Damien Puy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2016

ISBN: 9781513564890

Keywords: International Business Cycles, Synchronization, business cycle, economies, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, All Countries,

This paper assesses the strength of business cycle synchronization between 1950 and 2014 in a sample of 21 countries using a new quarterly dataset based on IMF archival data. Contrary to the common wisdom, we find...

House Price Synchronicity, Banking Integration, and Global Financial Conditions

House Price Synchronicity, Banking Integration, and Global Financial Conditions »

Source: House Price Synchronicity, Banking Integration, and Global Financial Conditions

Volume/Issue: 2018/250

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Adrian Alter , Jane Dokko , and Dulani Seneviratne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 November 2018

ISBN: 9781484385692

Keywords: Housing market; global liquidity; financial conditions; banking intergration; business cycles, Housing market, global liquidity, financial conditions, banking intergration, business cycles, General, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, International Business Cycles

We examine the relationship between house price synchronicity and global financial conditions across 40 countries and about 70 cities over the past three decades. The role played by cross-border banking flows in re...