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Spillovers from Global and Regional Shocks to Armenia

Spillovers from Global and Regional Shocks to Armenia »

Volume/Issue: 2015/241

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Knarik Ayvazyan , and Teresa Daban Sanchez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 November 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513590462.001

ISBN: 9781513590462

Keywords: Spillovers, Trade, Business cycles, Transmission channels, SVAR, economy, trading partners, regional shocks, oil prices, General

Using a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model, this paper examines the size, geographical sources, and transmission channels of global and regional shocks to the Armenian economy. Results show that Armenia...

The Big Split
			: Why Did Output Trajectories in the ASEAN-4 Diverge after the Global Financial Crisis?

The Big Split : Why Did Output Trajectories in the ASEAN-4 Diverge after the Global Financial Crisis? »

Volume/Issue: 2013/222

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Agnes Isnawangsih , Vladimir Klyuev , and Longmei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 October 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475588774.001

ISBN: 9781475588774

Keywords: Global Financial Crisis, ASEAN, Countercyclical Policies, trading partner, domestic demand, trading partners, trade openness, General, International Business Cycles, Countercyclical Policies.,

The global financial crisis originated in advanced economies, but had a major impact on emerging markets. The impact, however, was not uniform. Even in a relatively homogenous group of countries such as ASEAN-4 (In...

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2012/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi , and Maziar Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475597158.001

ISBN: 9781475597158

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, exporting countries, Time-Series Models

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-dr...

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles »

Volume/Issue: 2012/255

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 October 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475581645.001

ISBN: 9781475581645

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, macroeconomic shocks, international business cycle, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, oil exports, reer

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GD...

The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery

The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery »

Volume/Issue: 2017/242

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Aqib Aslam , Emine Boz , Eugenio Cerutti , Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro , and Petia Topalova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484328279.001

ISBN: 9781484328279

Keywords: Globalization, Trade policy, International trade, Investment, General, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Trade Forecasting and Simulation, International Business Cycles

Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposi...

The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy

The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2015/259

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 December 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513509846.001

ISBN: 9781513509846

Keywords: Tight oil, shale oil, fracking revolution, oil price decline, oil supply, global macroeconometric modeling, international business cycle, oil, prices, oil prices

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2...

Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy
			: An Empirical Exploration

Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy : An Empirical Exploration »

Volume/Issue: 2003/246

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ayhan Kose , Marco Terrones , and Eswar Prasad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451875874.001

ISBN: 9781451875874

Keywords: macroeconomic fluctuations, volatility, correlations, globalization period, business cycle, growth rates, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, International Factor Movements and International Business,

This paper analyzes the evolution of volatility and cross-country comovement in output, consumption, and investment fluctuations using two distinct datasets. The results suggest that there has been a significant de...

Oil Prices and the Global Economy

Oil Prices and the Global Economy »

Source: Oil Prices and the Global Economy : Is It Different This Time Around?

Volume/Issue: 2016/210

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kamiar Mohaddes , and M. Pesaran

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2016

ISBN: 9781475552034

Keywords: Economic growth, Markets, Oil, Oil prices, United States, Western Hemisphere, Econometric models, Supply and demand, Vector autoregression, Equity prices

The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the United States and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econ...

Part IV: Living with the Global Cycle

Part IV: Living with the Global Cycle »

Source: Collapse and Revival : Understanding Global Recessions and Recoveries

Series: Books

Author(s): Ayhan Kose , and Marco Terrones

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 December 2015

ISBN: 9781513570020

Keywords: Economic recession, global recession; business cycles; recession and recovery; financial globalization

Chapter Epigraphs [T]here is a danger that recession will feed on itself and that confidence in the future will be progressively sapped throughout the world as cautio...

Q&A: Seven Questions on the Global Housing Markets

Q&A: Seven Questions on the Global Housing Markets »

Source: IMF Research Bulletin, September 2014

Volume/Issue: 15/3

Series: IMF Research Bulletin

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 October 2014

ISBN: 9781498340045

Keywords: monetary fund, business cycle, business cycle synchronization, housing markets, Jacques Polak, William Hood, IMF Economic Review, growth shocks, housing booms,

This issue of the IMF Research Bulletin opens with a letter from the new editor, Rabah Arezki. The Research Summaries are a "Primer on 'Global Liquidity'" (Eugenio Cerutti, Stijn Claessens, and Lev Ratnovski); and...