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China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility
			: Is World Growth Losing Out?

China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility : Is World Growth Losing Out? »

Volume/Issue: 2016/63

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 March 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513590455.001

ISBN: 9781513590455

Keywords: China&;amp;#x2019;s slowdown, global financial market volatility, international business cycle, Global VAR, volatility, market volatility, financial market, trade, global financial market, Time-Series Models

China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks,...

Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia

Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2014/80

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alberto Behar , and Jaime Espinosa-Bowen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484380796.001

ISBN: 9781484380796

Keywords: Gravity model, Caucasus, oil exports, oil exporters, exporters, services exports, exporter, Trade Forecasting and Simulation, International Business Cycles,

This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with r...

FDI Flows to Low-Income Countries
			: Global Drivers and Growth Implications

FDI Flows to Low-Income Countries : Global Drivers and Growth Implications »

Volume/Issue: 2010/132

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455201150.001

ISBN: 9781455201150

Keywords: FDI, Business Cycle, Low-income Countries, host country, direct investment, bilateral trade, foreign direct investment, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, Economic Growth of Open Economies, International Factor Movements And International Business,

What accounts for variations in FDI flows from advanced to developing countries? How have FDI inflows explained cross-country growth experiences? In this paper we tackle both these questions empirically for a large...

France in the Global Economy
			: A Structural Approximate Dynamic Factor Model Analysis

France in the Global Economy : A Structural Approximate Dynamic Factor Model Analysis »

Volume/Issue: 2007/129

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francisco Nadal De Simone , and Alain Kabundi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451866933.001

ISBN: 9781451866933

Keywords: Dynamic factor models, international business cycles, sign restrictions, fixed capital formation, capital formation, balance of payments, terms of trade, fixed investment,

This study identifies the main shocks that cause fluctuations in French output and their channels of transmission. It uses a large-dimensional structural approximate dynamic factor model. There are three main findi...

Getting to Know GIMF
			: The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model

Getting to Know GIMF : The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model »

Volume/Issue: 2013/55

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Derek Anderson , Benjamin Hunt , Mika Kortelainen , Michael Kumhof , Douglas Laxton , Dirk Muir , Susanna Mursula , and Stephen Snudden

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 February 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475559415.001

ISBN: 9781475559415

Keywords: business cycle, fiscal multipliers, general equilibrium models, interest rates, macroeconomic interdependence, policy effects, simulation, inflation, real interest rate, real interest rates

The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis and international economic research....

Global Business Cycles
			: Convergence or Decoupling?

Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling? »

Volume/Issue: 2008/143

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ayhan Kose , Eswar Prasad , and Christopher Otrok

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451870015.001

ISBN: 9781451870015

Keywords: macroeconomic fluctuations, convergence, decoupling, business cycle, globalization period, business cycle fluctuations,

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets,...

Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy
			: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies

Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy : Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2015/23

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi , Luis Felipe Cespedes , and Alessandro Rebucci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 January 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484346037.001

ISBN: 9781484346037

Keywords: C32, E44, F44, economies, liquidity, advanced economies, exchange rate, Time-Series Models, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, International Business Cycles

In this paper we first compare house price cycles in advanced and emerging economies using a new quarterly house price data set covering the period 1990-2012. We find that house prices in emerging economies grow fa...

Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring

Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring »

Volume/Issue: 2011/25

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): S. Boragan Aruoba , Marco Terrones , Ayhan Kose , and Francis Diebold

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455216727.001

ISBN: 9781455216727

Keywords: Expansion, Contraction, Recession, Turning Point, Dynamic factor model, Nowcasting, Real-time analysis, business cycle, business cycles, correlations

We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observati...

Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization?

Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization? »

Volume/Issue: 2016/54

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eric Monnet , and Damien Puy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564890.001

ISBN: 9781513564890

Keywords: International Business Cycles, Synchronization, business cycle, economies, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, All Countries,

This paper assesses the strength of business cycle synchronization between 1950 and 2014 in a sample of 21 countries using a new quarterly dataset based on IMF archival data. Contrary to the common wisdom, we find...

House Price Synchronicity, Banking Integration, and Global Financial Conditions

House Price Synchronicity, Banking Integration, and Global Financial Conditions »

Volume/Issue: 2018/250

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Adrian Alter , Jane Dokko , and Dulani Seneviratne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484385692.001

ISBN: 9781484385692

Keywords: Housing market; global liquidity; financial conditions; banking intergration; business cycles, Housing market, global liquidity, financial conditions, banking intergration, business cycles, General, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, International Business Cycles

We examine the relationship between house price synchronicity and global financial conditions across 40 countries and about 70 cities over the past three decades. The role played by cross-border banking flows in re...