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Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia

Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2014/80

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alberto Behar , and Jaime Espinosa-Bowen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484380796.001

ISBN: 9781484380796

Keywords: Gravity model, Caucasus, oil exports, oil exporters, exporters, services exports, exporter, Trade Forecasting and Simulation, International Business Cycles,

This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with r...

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles »

Volume/Issue: 2012/255

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 October 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475581645.001

ISBN: 9781475581645

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, macroeconomic shocks, international business cycle, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, oil exports, reer

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GD...

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2012/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi , and Maziar Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475597158.001

ISBN: 9781475597158

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, exporting countries, Time-Series Models

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-dr...

Oil Wealth in Central Africa
			: Policies for Inclusive Growth

Oil Wealth in Central Africa : Policies for Inclusive Growth »

Series: Books

Author(s): Bernardin Akitoby , and Sharmini Coorey

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781616353766.071

ISBN: 9781616353766

Keywords: fiscal policy, per, public investment, expenditure, fiscal stance

Despite its vast oil wealth, central Africa still struggles to sustain strong, inclusive economic growth and to generate sufficient employment opportunities, particularly for its fast-growing youth population. Draw...

Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks
			: Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries:  Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries

Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks : Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries: Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries »

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Stefania Fabrizio

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 July 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781616353773.087

ISBN: 9781616353773

Keywords: Development, Economic growth, Commodity prices, External shocks, Economic recovery, Price increases, Low-income developing countries, inflation, monetary policy, exchange rate

As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment...

Changing Patterns of Global Trade

Changing Patterns of Global Trade »

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Nagwa Riad , Luca Errico , Christian Henn , Christian Saborowski , Mika Saito , and Jarkko Turunen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 January 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781616352073.087

ISBN: 9781616352073

Keywords: Emerging markets, Developed countries, International trade, Trade integration, supply chain, gross exports, trade flows, global trade, technology exports

Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patt...

Global Rebalancing
			: Implications for Low-Income Countries

Global Rebalancing : Implications for Low-Income Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2011/239

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yongzheng Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463922610.001

ISBN: 9781463922610

Keywords: Global Rebalancing, low-income countries, terms of trade, commodity exporters, manufactured exports, exporters, export expansion, Macroeconomic Aspects Of International Trade And Finance, Economywide Country Studies,

While global rebalancing will mainly involve structural realignment among major advanced and emerging market economies, it could have significant impact on low-income countries (LICs). Simulations using a global ge...

Global Monitoring Report, 2011
			: Improving the Odds of Achieving the MDGs

Global Monitoring Report, 2011 : Improving the Odds of Achieving the MDGs »

Series: Other Official Rpts and Docs

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 May 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9780821387009.019

ISBN: 9780821387009

Keywords: primary education, maternal mortality, indigenous peoples, gender parity, impact evaluations

With less than five years left to achieve the MDGs, this year's report looks at the prospects and challenges for reaching the goals. It also examines the great diversity of performance across indicators, countries,...

Did Export Diversification Soften the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis?

Did Export Diversification Soften the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis? »

Volume/Issue: 2011/99

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rafael Romeu , and Nelson Costa Neto

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455254309.001

ISBN: 9781455254309

Keywords: global financial crisis, HS classification, empirical, exporter, export diversification, trading partner, bilateral trade, trading partners, Studies of Particular Policy Episodes, International Finance: General,

This study considers the role of export diversification in determining trade outcomes during the global financial crisis. The impact of export diversification (or concentration) is measured by assessing three diffe...

Factor Immobility and Regional Impacts of Trade Liberalization Evidenceon Poverty From India

Factor Immobility and Regional Impacts of Trade Liberalization Evidenceon Poverty From India »

Volume/Issue: 2010/218

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Petia Topalova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455208838.001

ISBN: 9781455208838

Keywords: Tariff, tariff cuts, trade protection, trade reforms, Measurement and Analysis of Poverty, Economic Development: Regional, Urban, and Rural Analyses,

This paper uses the 1991 Indian trade liberalization to measure the impact of trade liberalization on poverty, and to examine the mechanisms underpinning this impact. Variation in sectoral composition across distri...