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Global Financial Stability Report, April 2019

Vulnerabilities in a Maturing Credit Cycle

The April 2019 GFSR finds that despite significant variability over the past two quarters, financial conditions remain accommodative.

World Economic Outlook, April 2019

Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery

The global economic expansion decelerated in the second half of 2018 with global growth projected to slow to 3.3 percent in 2019, with risks to future growth on the downside.

Inequality of Opportunity, Inequality of Income and Economic Growth

Inequality of Opportunity, Inequality of Income and Economic Growth »

Volume/Issue: 2019/34

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shekhar Aiyar , and Christian Ebeke

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 February 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484396988.001

ISBN: 9781484396988

Keywords: Income inequality, Economic growth, Income distribution, Income shocks, Human capital, Intergenerational Mobility;Growth;Gini;inequality;elasticity;unequal access;Brueckner

We posit that the relationship between income inequality and economic growth is mediated by the level of equality of opportunity, which we identify with intergenerational mobility. In economies characterized by int...

Oil Prices and the Global Economy
			: Is It Different This Time Around?

Oil Prices and the Global Economy : Is It Different This Time Around? »

Volume/Issue: 2016/210

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kamiar Mohaddes , and M. Pesaran

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475552034.001

ISBN: 9781475552034

Keywords: Economic growth, Markets, Oil, Oil prices, United States, Western Hemisphere, Econometric models, Supply and demand, Vector autoregression, Equity prices

The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the United States and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econ...

U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates

U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates »

Volume/Issue: 2016/195

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carlos Caceres , Yan Carriere-Swallow , Ishak Demir , and Bertrand Gruss

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 September 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475543056.001

ISBN: 9781475543056

Keywords: Monetary policy; monetary conditions; autonomy; global financial cycle.

As the Federal Reserve continues to normalize its monetary policy, this paper studies the impact of U.S. interest rates on rates in other countries. We find a modest but nontrivial pass-through from U.S. to domesti...

Growing Apart, Losing Trust? The Impact of Inequality on Social Capital

Growing Apart, Losing Trust? The Impact of Inequality on Social Capital »

Volume/Issue: 2016/176

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eric Gould , and Alexander Hijzen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 August 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475529487.001

ISBN: 9781475529487

Keywords: social capital, earnings, redistribution

There is a widespread perception that trust and social capital have declined in United States as well as other advanced economies, while income inequality has tended to increase. While previous research has noted t...

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2016
			: Potent Policies for a Successful Normalization

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2016 : Potent Policies for a Successful Normalization »

Series: Global Financial Stability Report

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 April 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513506777.082

ISBN: 9781513506777

Keywords: Financial stability, Global Financial Stability Report, Global Financial Stability Reports, Global Financial Stability Risks, International financial stability, Macroprudential policies and financial stability, market, emerging market, insurance, equity

The current Global Financial Stability Report (April 2016) finds that global financial stability risks have risen since the last report in October 2015. The new report finds that the outlook has deteriorated in adv...

Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization?

Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization? »

Volume/Issue: 2016/54

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eric Monnet , and Damien Puy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564890.001

ISBN: 9781513564890

Keywords: International Business Cycles, Synchronization, business cycle, economies, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, All Countries,

This paper assesses the strength of business cycle synchronization between 1950 and 2014 in a sample of 21 countries using a new quarterly dataset based on IMF archival data. Contrary to the common wisdom, we find...

After Paris
			: Fiscal, Macroeconomic and Financial Implications of Global Climate Change

After Paris : Fiscal, Macroeconomic and Financial Implications of Global Climate Change »

Volume/Issue: 2016/1

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Mai Farid , Michael Keen , Michael Papaioannou , Ian Parry , Catherine Pattillo , and Anna Ter-Martirosyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 January 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513506562.006

ISBN: 9781513506562

Keywords: Financial markets, Fiscal policy, Climate mitigation, climate finance, adaptation, climate, carbon, emissions, climate change, co

This paper discusses the implications of climate change for fiscal, financial, and macroeconomic policies. Most pressing is the use of carbon taxes (or equivalent trading systems) to implement the emissions mitigat...

The Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures by the Systemic Four on Global Liquidity and Monetary Conditions

The Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures by the Systemic Four on Global Liquidity and Monetary Conditions »

Volume/Issue: 2015/287

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yevgeniya Korniyenko , and Elena Loukoianova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 December 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513589848.001

ISBN: 9781513589848

Keywords: unconventional monetary policy, capital flows, liquidity, monetary policy, securities, balance sheets, issuance, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, Government Policy and Regulation, capital flows.,

The paper examines the impact of unconventional monetary policy measures (UMPMs) implemented since 2008 in the United States, the United Kingdom, Euro area and Japan— the Systemic Four—on global monetary and liquid...

Changes in the Global Investor Base and the Stability of Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets

Changes in the Global Investor Base and the Stability of Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2015/277

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luis Brandao-Marques , R. Gelos , Hibiki Ichiue , and Hiroko Oura

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 December 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513555560.001

ISBN: 9781513555560

Keywords: Capital flows, emerging markets, mutual funds, flows, portfolio, bond, equity, portfolio flows, All Countries,

An analysis of mutual-fund-level flow data into EM bond and equity markets confirms that different types of funds behave differently. Bond funds are more sensitive to global factors and engage more in return chasin...

The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy

The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2015/259

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 December 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513509846.001

ISBN: 9781513509846

Keywords: Tight oil, shale oil, fracking revolution, oil price decline, oil supply, global macroeconometric modeling, international business cycle, oil, prices, oil prices

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2...