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Regionalization vs. Globalization

Regionalization vs. Globalization »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2013/19

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hideaki Hirata , Ayhan Kose , and Christopher Otrok

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 January 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557753281.001

ISBN: 9781557753281

Keywords: Comovement, Synchronization, Trade linkages, Financial linkages, business cycle, business cycle synchronization, regional trade, global trade, Bayesian Analysis, Time-Series Models

Abstract: Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution o...

Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring

Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2011/25

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): S. Boragan Aruoba , Marco Terrones , Ayhan Kose , and Francis Diebold

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455216727.001

ISBN: 9781455216727

Keywords: Expansion, Contraction, Recession, Turning Point, Dynamic factor model, Nowcasting, Real-time analysis, business cycle, business cycles, correlations

We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observati...

After the Crisis : Lower Consumption Growth But Narrower Global Imbalances?

After the Crisis : Lower Consumption Growth But Narrower Global Imbalances? »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2010/11

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Franziska Ohnsorge , and Ashoka Mody

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451961966.001

ISBN: 9781451961966

Keywords: current account adjustment, consumption growth, disposable income, household wealth, income growth, private consumption,

We estimate consumption dynamics in the G-7 economies, paying particular attention to the possibility of precautionary behavior in the face of uncertainty. We find that in the short run, continued income uncertaint...

Global Imbalances : The Role of Non-Tradabletotal Factor Productivity in Advanced Economies

Global Imbalances : The Role of Non-Tradabletotal Factor Productivity in Advanced Economies »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2009/63

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alessandro Rebucci , Nicoletta Batini , Pietro Cova , and Massimiliano Pisani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451872101.001

ISBN: 9781451872101

Keywords: trade deficit, non-tradable sector, GEM, tfp, tradable goods, elasticity of substitution, intermediate goods, terms of trade,

This paper investigates the role played by total factor productivity (TFP) in the tradable and nontradable sectors of the United States, the euro area, and Japan in the emergence and evolution of today's global tra...

Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling?

Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling? »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2008/143

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ayhan Kose , Eswar Prasad , and Christopher Otrok

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451870015.001

ISBN: 9781451870015

Keywords: macroeconomic fluctuations, convergence, decoupling, business cycle, globalization period, business cycle fluctuations,

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets,...

Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy : An Empirical Exploration

Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy : An Empirical Exploration »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2003/246

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ayhan Kose , Marco Terrones , and Eswar Prasad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451875874.001

ISBN: 9781451875874

Keywords: macroeconomic fluctuations, volatility, correlations, globalization period, business cycle, growth rates, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, International Factor Movements and International Business,

This paper analyzes the evolution of volatility and cross-country comovement in output, consumption, and investment fluctuations using two distinct datasets. The results suggest that there has been a significant de...

Globalization and Growth in the Twentieth Century

Globalization and Growth in the Twentieth Century »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2000/44

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): N. Crafts

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451846409.001

ISBN: 9781451846409

Keywords: Growth, convergence, tfp, growth rates, real gdp, growth accounting

This paper reviews the experience of economic growth during the twentieth century with a view to highlighting implications for both growth economists and policy-makers. The unprecedented divergence in income levels...

World Economic Outlook, May 1997 : Globalization: Opportunities and Challenges

World Economic Outlook, May 1997 : Globalization: Opportunities and Challenges »

Book

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 May 1997

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557756480.081

ISBN: 9781557756480

Keywords: debt, inflation, interest, payments, transition countries

This paper presents an outlook for the world economy for 1997. The paper highlights that the world economic growth quickened during 1996 following widespread deceleration of activity in 1995. Economic and financial...