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The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy

The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2015/259

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 December 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513509846.001

ISBN: 9781513509846

Keywords: Tight oil, shale oil, fracking revolution, oil price decline, oil supply, global macroeconometric modeling, international business cycle, oil, prices, oil prices

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2...

The Endogenous Skill Bias of Technical Change and Inequality in Developing Countries

The Endogenous Skill Bias of Technical Change and Inequality in Developing Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2013/50

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alberto Behar

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 February 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475536959.001

ISBN: 9781475536959

Keywords: Skill-biased Technical Change, skilled workers, unskilled labor, trade liberalization, unskilled workers, General, Technological Change: Choices and Consequences,

This paper draws on existing empirical literature and an original theoretical model to argue that globalization and skill supply affect the extent to which technology adoption in developing countries favors skilled...

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles »

Volume/Issue: 2012/255

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 October 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475581645.001

ISBN: 9781475581645

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, macroeconomic shocks, international business cycle, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, oil exports, reer

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GD...

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2012/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi , and Maziar Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475597158.001

ISBN: 9781475597158

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, exporting countries, Time-Series Models

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-dr...

Natural Resources, Volatility, and Inclusive Growth
			: Perspectives From the Middle East and North Africa

Natural Resources, Volatility, and Inclusive Growth : Perspectives From the Middle East and North Africa »

Volume/Issue: 2012/111

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mustapha Nabli , and Rabah Arezki

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475503326.001

ISBN: 9781475503326

Keywords: Natural resources;, volatility;, inclusive growth;, Middle East and North Africa., resource-rich countries, natural resource, resource-poor countries, natural resource curse, Equity, Justice

This paper takes stock of the economic performance of resource rich countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) over the past forty years. While those countries have maintained high levels of income per ca...

The Global Financial Crisis and Workers' Remittances to Africa
			: What's the Damage?

The Global Financial Crisis and Workers' Remittances to Africa : What's the Damage? »

Volume/Issue: 2010/24

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ralph Chami , Adolfo Barajas , Anjali Garg , and Connel Fullenkamp

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451962413.001

ISBN: 9781451962413

Keywords: global crisis, remittance, migrant, host country, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General,

Using data on the distribution of migrants from Africa, GDP growth forecasts for host countries, and after estimating remittance multipliers in recipient countries, this paper estimates the impact of the global eco...

Global Imbalances and Petrodollars

Global Imbalances and Petrodollars »

Volume/Issue: 2009/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fuad Hasanov , and Rabah Arezki

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451872361.001

ISBN: 9781451872361

Keywords: Oil exporters, exporters, exporting countries, oil-exporting countries, terms of trade,

Oil exporters have run large current account surpluses. We explore oil exporters' role in our understanding and the resolution of global imbalances. Current account dynamics are estimated for oil-exporting countrie...

How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels

How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels »

Volume/Issue: 2007/238

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marco Terrones , Ayhan Kose , and Eswar Prasad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451868029.001

ISBN: 9781451868029

Keywords: risk sharing, emerging markets, financial globalization,

In theory, one of the main benefits of financial globalization is that it should allow for more efficient international risk sharing. This paper provides a comprehensive empirical evaluation of the patterns of risk...

Financial Globalization and Fiscal Perfomance in Emerging Markets

Financial Globalization and Fiscal Perfomance in Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2005/212

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): David Hauner , and Manmohan Kumar

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451862317.001

ISBN: 9781451862317

Keywords: interest rate spreads, external debt, fiscal transparency, debt service, fiscal impact, National Government Expenditures And Related Policies,

In recent years financial globalization and benign global market conditions have helped emerging markets in their external financing and budgetary positions. This paper examines three related issues: (i) the import...

Does Foreign Aid Reduce Poverty? Empirical Evidence from Nongovernmental and Bilateral Aid

Does Foreign Aid Reduce Poverty? Empirical Evidence from Nongovernmental and Bilateral Aid »

Volume/Issue: 2005/100

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Boriana Yontcheva , and Nadia Masud

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451861198.001

ISBN: 9781451861198

Keywords: Official Development Aid, NGOs, Panel Data Econometrics, infant mortality, mortality rates, aid effectiveness,

This paper assesses the effectiveness of foreign aid in reducing poverty through its impact on human development indicators. We use a dataset of both bilateral aid and NGO aid flows. Our results show that NGO aid r...