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A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies

A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies »

Source: A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies

Volume/Issue: 2015/50

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zoltan Jakab , Pavel Lukyantsau , and Shengzu Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 March 2015

ISBN: 9781498399609

Keywords: Global projection model, inflation, interest rate, economies, demand, exchange rate, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. This paper creates a special version of GPM that includes the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries. The...

A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies

A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2015/50

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zoltan Jakab , Pavel Lukyantsau , and Shengzu Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 March 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498399609.001

ISBN: 9781498399609

Keywords: Global projection model, inflation, interest rate, economies, demand, exchange rate, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. This paper creates a special version of GPM that includes the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries. The...

Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates »

Source: Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Volume/Issue: 2013/223

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mirko Abbritti , Salvatore Dell'Erba , Antonio Moreno , and Sergio Sola

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 November 2013

ISBN: 9781475513516

Keywords: Yield Curve, Global Factors, FAVAR, Affine Term Structure Models, Term Premium, inflation, monetary economics, expansionary monetary policy, monetary policies, Time-Series Models

This paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine term structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show that global factors account for more...

Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates »

Volume/Issue: 2013/223

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mirko Abbritti , Salvatore Dell'Erba , Antonio Moreno , and Sergio Sola

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 November 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475513516.001

ISBN: 9781475513516

Keywords: Yield Curve, Global Factors, FAVAR, Affine Term Structure Models, Term Premium, inflation, monetary economics, expansionary monetary policy, monetary policies, Time-Series Models

This paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine term structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show that global factors account for more...

Apocalypse then
			: The Evolution of the North Atlantic Economy and the Global Crisis

Apocalypse then : The Evolution of the North Atlantic Economy and the Global Crisis »

Volume/Issue: 2011/212

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Trung Bui , and Tamim Bayoumi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463902308.001

ISBN: 9781463902308

Keywords: Financial linkages, financial regulation, banking, bonds, bond, banking systems, financial market, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation, General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation,

The financial crisis, originated from the collapse of US housing markets in 2008, reverberates around the world. Its destructive force was felt nowhere more keenly than Western Europe. Indeed, it continues to mire...

Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring

Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring »

Source: Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring

Volume/Issue: 2011/25

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): S. Boragan Aruoba , Marco Terrones , Ayhan Kose , and Francis Diebold

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2011

ISBN: 9781455216727

Keywords: Expansion, Contraction, Recession, Turning Point, Dynamic factor model, Nowcasting, Real-time analysis, business cycle, business cycles, correlations

We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observati...

Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring

Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring »

Volume/Issue: 2011/25

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): S. Boragan Aruoba , Marco Terrones , Ayhan Kose , and Francis Diebold

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455216727.001

ISBN: 9781455216727

Keywords: Expansion, Contraction, Recession, Turning Point, Dynamic factor model, Nowcasting, Real-time analysis, business cycle, business cycles, correlations

We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observati...

Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective

Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective »

Source: Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective

Volume/Issue: 2010/261

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomas Helbling , Ayhan Kose , Christopher Otrok , and Raju Huidrom

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

ISBN: 9781455209613

Keywords: credit spreads, macroeconomic fluctuations, global recession, recession, recessions, global recessions, financial markets, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, Open Economy Macroeconomics

This paper examines the importance of credit market shocks in driving global business cycles over the period 1988:1-2009:4. We first estimate common components in various macroeconomic and financial variables of th...

Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective

Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective »

Volume/Issue: 2010/261

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomas Helbling , Ayhan Kose , Christopher Otrok , and Raju Huidrom

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455209613.001

ISBN: 9781455209613

Keywords: credit spreads, macroeconomic fluctuations, global recession, recession, recessions, global recessions, financial markets, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, Open Economy Macroeconomics

This paper examines the importance of credit market shocks in driving global business cycles over the period 1988:1-2009:4. We first estimate common components in various macroeconomic and financial variables of th...

Tax Reform and Debt Sustainability in Germany
			: An Assessment Using the Global Fiscal Model

Tax Reform and Debt Sustainability in Germany : An Assessment Using the Global Fiscal Model »

Volume/Issue: 2007/46

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Dennis Botman , and Stephan Danninger

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451866100.001

ISBN: 9781451866100

Keywords: Aging, Debt sustainability, Economic models, Fiscal policy, Germany, Tax reforms, Value added tax, VAT, tax reform, spillover effects

In 2005, the German government announced a far-reaching fiscal adjustment program. This paper uses the IMF's Global Fiscal Model to study its impact and explores options for addressing long-term pressures from popu...