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Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth

Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth »

Volume/Issue: 2020/78

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesca Caselli , Francesco Grigoli , Romain Lafarguette , and Changchun Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 May 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513545653.001

ISBN: 9781513545653

Keywords: Real effective exchange rates, Indicators of economic activity, Economic growth, Economic indicators, Economic policy, Density aggregation, density evaluation, global GDP growth, predictive density., WP

In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries' predictive GDP growth de...

Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth*

Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth* »

Source: Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth

Volume/Issue: 2020/78

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesca Caselli , Francesco Grigoli , Romain Lafarguette , and Changchun Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 May 2020

ISBN: 9781513545653

Keywords: Real effective exchange rates, Indicators of economic activity, Economic growth, Economic indicators, Economic policy, Density aggregation, density evaluation, global GDP growth, predictive density., WP

In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries' predictive GDP growth de...

Global Value Chains and External Adjustment: Do Exchange Rates Still Matter?*

Global Value Chains and External Adjustment: Do Exchange Rates Still Matter?* »

Source: Global Value Chains and External Adjustment: Do Exchange Rates Still Matter?

Volume/Issue: 2019/300

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gustavo Adler , Sergii Meleshchuk , and Carolina Osorio Buitron

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 December 2019

ISBN: 9781513521985

Keywords: Exchange rate shocks, Exchange rate policy, Exchange rate pass-through, Flexible exchange rates, Exchange rate adjustments, inflation targeting, foreign exchange intervention, exchange rate, WP, intermediate input

The paper explores how international integration through global value chains shapes the working of exchange rates to induce external adjustment both in the short and medium run. The analysis indicates that greater...

Global Value Chains and External Adjustment: Do Exchange Rates Still Matter?

Global Value Chains and External Adjustment: Do Exchange Rates Still Matter? »

Volume/Issue: 2019/300

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gustavo Adler , Sergii Meleshchuk , and Carolina Osorio Buitron

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 December 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513521985.001

ISBN: 9781513521985

Keywords: Exchange rate shocks, Exchange rate policy, Exchange rate pass-through, Flexible exchange rates, Exchange rate adjustments, inflation targeting, foreign exchange intervention, exchange rate, WP, intermediate input

The paper explores how international integration through global value chains shapes the working of exchange rates to induce external adjustment both in the short and medium run. The analysis indicates that greater...

Tourism In Belize: Ensuring Sustained Growth

Tourism In Belize: Ensuring Sustained Growth »

Volume/Issue: 2019/267

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Julian Chow

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 December 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513521268.001

ISBN: 9781513521268

Keywords: Real effective exchange rates, Economic growth, Economic recovery, Human capital, Sustainable development, Tourism, structural reforms, insitutional, governance, crime

Belize's tourism sector has witnessed impressive growth in recent years with overnight tourist arrivals registering double digit annual growth rates since 2016. To guide the development of the tourism sector from 2...

Tourism In Belize: Ensuring Sustained Growth

Tourism In Belize: Ensuring Sustained Growth »

Source: Tourism In Belize: Ensuring Sustained Growth

Volume/Issue: 2019/267

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Julian Chow

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 December 2019

ISBN: 9781513521268

Keywords: Real effective exchange rates, Economic growth, Economic recovery, Human capital, Sustainable development, Tourism, structural reforms, insitutional, governance, crime

Belize's tourism sector has witnessed impressive growth in recent years with overnight tourist arrivals registering double digit annual growth rates since 2016. To guide the development of the tourism sector from 2...

The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains

The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains »

Volume/Issue: 2019/193

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , Jelle Barkema , and Diego Cerdeiro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513510569.001

ISBN: 9781513510569

Keywords: Real effective exchange rates, Producer prices, Real exchange rates, Exchange rate policy, Commodity trade, Global supply chains, value-added trade, production and final-demand elasticities., WP, final demand

The rise of global supply chains has had profound effects on individual economies and the global trading system, thereby complicating standard macroeconomic analyses. For many of the new and challenging questions b...

The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains

The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains »

Source: The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains

Volume/Issue: 2019/193

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , Jelle Barkema , and Diego Cerdeiro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 September 2019

ISBN: 9781513510569

Keywords: Real effective exchange rates, Producer prices, Real exchange rates, Exchange rate policy, Commodity trade, Global supply chains, value-added trade, production and final-demand elasticities., WP, final demand

The rise of global supply chains has had profound effects on individual economies and the global trading system, thereby complicating standard macroeconomic analyses. For many of the new and challenging questions b...

External Sector Report, July 2018
			: Tackling Global Imbalances amid Rising Trade Tensions

External Sector Report, July 2018 : Tackling Global Imbalances amid Rising Trade Tensions »

Volume: 18

Series: External Sector Report

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484367360.085

ISBN: 9781484367360

Keywords: Reserves, Exchange rates, Capital flows, Current account, G20

The External Sector Report presents a methodologically consistent assessment of the exchange rates, current accounts, reserves, capital flows, and external balance sheets of the world's largest economies. The 2018...

External Sector Report: Tackling Global Imbalances amid Rising Trade Tensions

External Sector Report: Tackling Global Imbalances amid Rising Trade Tensions »

Source: External Sector Report, July 2018 : Tackling Global Imbalances amid Rising Trade Tensions

Volume: 18

Series: External Sector Report

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 July 2018

ISBN: 9781484367360

Keywords: Reserves, Exchange rates, Capital flows, Current account, G20

The External Sector Report presents a methodologically consistent assessment of the exchange rates, current accounts, reserves, capital flows, and external balance sheets of the world's largest economies. The 2018...