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Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019, Sub-Saharan Africa

Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty

The economic recovery in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to continue, but at a slower pace than envisaged in October 2018.

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2019

Vulnerabilities in a Maturing Credit Cycle

The April 2019 GFSR finds that despite significant variability over the past two quarters, financial conditions remain accommodative.

Firms and the Decline in Earnings Inequality in Brazil

Firms and the Decline in Earnings Inequality in Brazil »

Volume/Issue: 2017/278

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Alvarez , Felipe Benguria , Niklas Engbom , and Christian Moser

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484333037.001

ISBN: 9781484333037

Keywords: Brazil, Western Hemisphere, Earnings Inequality, Linked Employer-Employee Data, Firm and Worker Heterogeneity, Productivity, Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis

We document a large decrease in earnings inequality in Brazil between 1996 and 2012. Using administrative linked employer-employee data, we fit high-dimensional worker and firm fixed effects models to understand th...

Djibouti's Quest for Inclusive Growth

Djibouti's Quest for Inclusive Growth »

Volume/Issue: 2017/270

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexei Kireyev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484331118.001

ISBN: 9781484331118

Keywords: Middle East, Djibouti, Poverty reduction, growth, inclusiveness, inequality, General, Aggregate Factor Income Distribution, Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

The paper reviews Djibouti's macroeconomic reforms aimed at achieving middle-income status as envisaged in Vision Djibouti 2035, the authorities' development strategy. In this context, the paper reviews policy opti...

Shifting Commodity Markets in a Globalized World

Shifting Commodity Markets in a Globalized World »

Series: Books

Author(s): Rabah Arezki , and Akito Matsumoto

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484310328.071

ISBN: 9781484310328

Keywords: Energy and Commodity Markets; Boom and Bust; Volatility; Global Economy

A survey of the complex and intertwined set of forces behind the various commodity markets and the interplay between these markets and the global economy. Summarizes a rich set of facts combined with in-depth analy...

Korea's Paradigm Shift for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth: A Proposal

Korea's Paradigm Shift for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth: A Proposal »

Volume/Issue: 2017/260

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yangkyoon Byeon , Kwanghae Choi , Heenam Choi , and Jun Kim

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484329931.001

ISBN: 9781484329931

Keywords: Government expenditures and welfare programs, Social protection, Fiscal sustainability, Korea, Republic of, Asia and Pacific, Economic freedom, structural reforms, General

Korea is facing mounting economic challenges. Productivity growth has been on a trend decline amid demographic headwinds, while the societal demand for inclusive growth has been on a steep rise. Furthermore, the go...

Credit Growth and Economic Recovery in Europe After the Global Financial Crisis

Credit Growth and Economic Recovery in Europe After the Global Financial Crisis »

Volume/Issue: 2017/256

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sergei Antoshin , Marco Arena , Nikolay Gueorguiev , Tonny Lybek , John Ralyea , and Etienne Yehoue

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484329610.001

ISBN: 9781484329610

Keywords: Financial crises, Europe, Economic recovery, credit growth, creditless recoveries, bank profitability, global financial crisis, Models with Panel Data, Single Equation Models, Single Variables

This paper reviews the empirical relationships between credit growth, economic recovery, and bank profitability in Europe after the global financial crisis (GFC). We find that the post-GFC recoveries in Europe have...

The Global FDI Network: Searching for Ultimate Investors

The Global FDI Network: Searching for Ultimate Investors »

Volume/Issue: 2017/258

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jannick Damgaard , and Thomas Elkjaer

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484329658.001

ISBN: 9781484329658

Keywords: FDI, multinational enterprises, special purpose entities, financial globalization, General

This paper addresses three types of geographical decoupling in foreign direct investment (FDI), i.e., challenges when using traditional FDI data as a proxy for real economic integration between economies: (i) large...

The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery

The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery »

Volume/Issue: 2017/242

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Aqib Aslam , Emine Boz , Eugenio Cerutti , Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro , and Petia Topalova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484328279.001

ISBN: 9781484328279

Keywords: Globalization, Trade policy, International trade, Investment, General, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Trade Forecasting and Simulation, International Business Cycles

Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposi...

Global Trade and the Dollar

Global Trade and the Dollar »

Volume/Issue: 2017/239

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emine Boz , Gita Gopinath , and Mikkel Plagborg-Møller

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484327975.001

ISBN: 9781484327975

Keywords: Bilateral trade, Foreign exchange, Bayesian semiparametrics, dominant currency, exchange rate passthrough, hierarchical Bayes, panel data, trade elasticity, US dollar, exchange rate pass-through

We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the fo...

Inequality in Financial Inclusion and Income Inequality

Inequality in Financial Inclusion and Income Inequality »

Volume/Issue: 2017/236

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Goksu Aslan , Corinne Deléchat , Monique Newiak , and Fan Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324905.001

ISBN: 9781484324905

Keywords: Income inequality, Financial inclusion, Sub-Saharan Africa, financial development, gender inequality, Other, Economics of Gender, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

We investigate the link between gender inequality in financial inclusion and income inequality, with three contributions to the recent literature. First, using a micro-dataset covering 146,000 individuals in over 1...

The Global Banking Network in the Aftermath of the Crisis: Is There Evidence of De-globalization?

The Global Banking Network in the Aftermath of the Crisis: Is There Evidence of De-globalization? »

Volume/Issue: 2017/232

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eugenio Cerutti , and Haonan Zhou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324868.001

ISBN: 9781484324868

Keywords: International financial markets, Cross-border Lending, Banking Network, Financial Interconnectedness, International Lending and Debt Problems, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, Other

Post-crisis dynamics show a shrinkage in the overall amount of crossborder bank lending, which has been interpreted in the literature as a retreat in financial globalization. In this paper, we argue that aggregate...