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Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019, Sub-Saharan Africa

Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty

The economic recovery in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to continue, but at a slower pace than envisaged in October 2018.

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2019

Vulnerabilities in a Maturing Credit Cycle

The April 2019 GFSR finds that despite significant variability over the past two quarters, financial conditions remain accommodative.

How Do Migration and Remittances Affect Inequality? A Case Study of Mexico

How Do Migration and Remittances Affect Inequality? A Case Study of Mexico »

Volume/Issue: 2018/136

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zsoka Koczan , and Franz Loyola

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484361634.001

ISBN: 9781484361634

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Mexico, Migration, Remittances, inequality, Firm Behavior, International Lending and Debt Problems

The poverty-reducing effects of remittances have been well-documented, however, their effects on inequality are less clear. This paper examines the impact of remittances on inequality in Mexico using household-leve...

The Exposure to Routinization: Labor Market Implications for Developed and Developing Economies

The Exposure to Routinization: Labor Market Implications for Developed and Developing Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2018/135

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mitali Das , and Benjamin Hilgenstock

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484361900.001

ISBN: 9781484361900

Keywords: Labor markets, Globalization, Income distribution, Information technology, Employment, Developing countries, Wages, Labor force, Polarization, routine occupations

Evidence that the automation of routine tasks has contributed to the polarization of labor markets has been documented for many developed economies, but little is known about its incidence in developing economies....

Inequality in China - Trends, Drivers and Policy Remedies

Inequality in China - Trends, Drivers and Policy Remedies »

Volume/Issue: 2018/127

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sonali Jain-Chandra , Niny Khor , Rui Mano , Johanna Schauer , Philippe Wingender , and Juzhong Zhuang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484357538.001

ISBN: 9781484357538

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, China, Fiscal policy, Income inequality, structural change, Personal Income and Wealth Distribution, General

China has experienced rapid economic growth over the past two decades and is on the brink of eradicating poverty. However, income inequality increased sharply from the early 1980s and rendered China among the most...

Evolution of the Global Financial Network and Contagion: A New Approach

Evolution of the Global Financial Network and Contagion: A New Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2018/113

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yevgeniya Korniyenko , Manasa Patnam , Rita Maria del Rio-Chanon , and Mason Porter

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353240.001

ISBN: 9781484353240

Keywords: Spillovers, Financial contagion, International financial markets, network analysis, Neural Networks and Related Topics, International Lending and Debt Problems, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, Globalization: Finance

This paper studies the interconnectedness of the global financial system and its susceptibility to shocks. A novel multilayer network framework is applied to link debt and equity exposures across countries. Use of...

Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources

Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources »

Volume/Issue: 2018/111

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Samba Mbaye , Marialuz Moreno Badia , and Kyungla Chae

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353592.001

ISBN: 9781484353592

Keywords: Public debt, historical debt, private debt, debt-to-GDP, debt database, General, General, International, or Comparative

This paper describes the compilation of the Global Debt Database (GDD), a cutting-edge dataset covering private and public debt for virtually the entire world (190 countries) dating back to the 1950s. The GDD is th...

Foreign Currency Bank Funding and Global Factors

Foreign Currency Bank Funding and Global Factors »

Volume/Issue: 2018/97

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Signe Krogstrup , and Cédric Tille

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353660.001

ISBN: 9781484353660

Keywords: Capital flows, Spillovers, Currency mismatch, push factors, cross-border transmission of shocks, European bank balance sheets, International Lending and Debt Problems, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

The literature on the drivers of capital flows stresses the prominent role of global financial factors. Recent empirical work, however, highlights how this role varies across countries and time, and this heterogene...

The Global Macrofinancial Model

The Global Macrofinancial Model »

Volume/Issue: 2018/81

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484350706.001

ISBN: 9781484350706

Keywords: Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; Macroprudential policy; Spillovers; Forecasting; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model; World economy

This paper documents the theoretical structure and empirical properties of the latest version of the Global Macrofinancial Model (GFM). This dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the world economy, disagg...

Globalization and the New Normal

Globalization and the New Normal »

Volume/Issue: 2018/75

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alina Carare , Bertrand Candelon , Jean-Baptiste Hasse , and Jing Lu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484350645.001

ISBN: 9781484350645

Keywords: New Normal, Globalization, Financial crises, Banking crises, Output growth

This study expands the empirical specification of Cerra and Saxena (2008), and allows short-term output growth regimes to be determined by globalization. Relying on a non-linear dynamic panel representation, it rec...

The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Financial Globalization: Evidence from Macro and Sectoral Data

The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Financial Globalization: Evidence from Macro and Sectoral Data »

Volume/Issue: 2018/83

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Davide Furceri , Prakash Loungani , and Jonathan Ostry

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484350898.001

ISBN: 9781484350898

Keywords: Globalization, Inequality, Capital Account Openness, Crises, Institutions

We take a fresh look at the aggregate and distributional effects of policies to liberalize international capital flows-financial globalization. Both country- and industry-level results suggest that such policies ha...

Understanding the Macro-Financial Effects of Household Debt: A Global Perspective

Understanding the Macro-Financial Effects of Household Debt: A Global Perspective »

Volume/Issue: 2018/76

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Adrian Alter , Alan Xiaochen Feng , and Nico Valckx

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484349861.001

ISBN: 9781484349861

Keywords: Household debt; financial crises; neglected crash risk; leverage; macro-financial stability, Household debt, financial crises, neglected crash risk, leverage, macro-financial stability, Forecasting and Simulation, General

We confirm the negative relationship between household debt and future GDP growth documented in Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) for a wider set of countries over the period 1950-2016. Three mutually reinforcing mecha...