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The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy*

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy* »

Article

Source: The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

Volume/Issue: 2012/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi , and Maziar Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2012

ISBN: 9781475597158

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, exporting countries, Time-Series Models

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-dr...

The Domestic and Global Impact of Japan's Policies for Growth

The Domestic and Global Impact of Japan's Policies for Growth »

Article

Source: The Domestic and Global Impact of Japan's Policies for Growth

Volume/Issue: 2005/209

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nicoletta Batini , Alessandro Rebucci , and Papa N'Diaye

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2005

ISBN: 9781451862287

Keywords: Global External Imbalance, Productivity Growth, Macroeconomic Models, current account, world economy, government debt, current account surplus, intermediate goods, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Japan is facing a sizable fiscal imbalance against a backdrop of weak trend growth and growing external imbalances in the world economy. This paper examines the possible impact of fiscal adjustment and productivity...

Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia

Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia »

Article

Source: Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia

Volume/Issue: 2014/80

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alberto Behar , and Jaime Espinosa-Bowen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2014

ISBN: 9781484380796

Keywords: Gravity model, Caucasus, oil exports, oil exporters, exporters, services exports, exporter, Trade Forecasting and Simulation, International Business Cycles,

This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with r...

The Flexible System of Global Models – FSGM

The Flexible System of Global Models – FSGM »

Article

Source: The Flexible System of Global Models - FSGM

Volume/Issue: 2015/64

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michal Andrle , Patrick Blagrave , Pedro Espaillat , Keiko Honjo , Benjamin Hunt , Mika Kortelainen , René Lalonde , Douglas Laxton , Eleonara Mavroeidi , Dirk Muir , Susanna Mursula , and Stephen Snudden

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 March 2015

ISBN: 9781475518665

Keywords: dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, macroeconomic interdependence, consumption, investment, demand, trade, potential output, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments

The Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) is a group of models developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis. A typical module of FSGM is a multi-region, forward-looking semi-structur...

The Global Credit Crunch and Foreign Banks' Lending to Emerging Markets

The Global Credit Crunch and Foreign Banks' Lending to Emerging Markets »

Article

Source: The Global Credit Crunch and Foreign Banks' Lending to Emerging Markets : Why Did Latin America Fare Better?

Volume/Issue: 2010/102

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kulwant Rai , and Herman Kamil

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2010

ISBN: 9781455200610

Keywords: global: credit crunch, cross-border lending, foreign banks, foreign bank, international settlements, foreign currency, foreign affiliates, International Lending and Debt Problems, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, International Finance Forecasting and Simulation,

The recent global financial turmoil raised questions about the stability of foreign banks' financing to emerging market countries. While foreign banks' lending growth to most emerging market regions contracted shar...

Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa – A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis

Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa – A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis »

Article

Source: Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa - A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2014/241

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Canales Kriljenko , Mehdi Hosseinkouchack , and Alexis Meyer-Cirkel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 December 2014

ISBN: 9781498305051

Keywords: GVAR, Financial Transmission, prices, output, commodity, equity, commodity prices, Models with Panel Data, Forecasting and Simulation, Forecasting and Simulation,

Sub-Saharan African countries are exposed to spillovers from global financial variables, but the impact on economic activity is more significant in more financially developed economies. Generalized impulse response...

Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia

Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia »

Article

Source: Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia

Volume/Issue: 2012/86

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

ISBN: 9781475502497

Keywords: central bank, monetary fund, price stability, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation, Kyrgyzstan, Food Price Shocks, Policy Responses,

This paper examines the implications of elevated global food prices for inflation in select Central Asian economies - Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The findings suggest that global fo...

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles*

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles* »

Article

Source: The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

Volume/Issue: 2012/255

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 October 2012

ISBN: 9781475581645

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, macroeconomic shocks, international business cycle, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, oil exports, reer

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GD...

How Might a Disorderly Resolution of Global Imbalances Affect Global Wealth?

How Might a Disorderly Resolution of Global Imbalances Affect Global Wealth? »

Article

Source: How Might a Disorderly Resolution of Global Imbalances Affect Global Wealth?

Volume/Issue: 2006/170

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Warnock

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2006

ISBN: 9781451864304

Keywords: U.S. asset holdings, global asset portfolios, disorderly currency adjustments, global current account imbalances, cpis, bonds, bond, bond markets, financial markets, International Lending and Debt Problems

Partly reflecting structural advantages such a liquidity and strong investor protection, foreigners have built up extremely large positions in U.S. (as well as other dollar-denominated) financial assets. This paper...

Apocalypse then : The Evolution of the North Atlantic Economy and the Global Crisis

Apocalypse then : The Evolution of the North Atlantic Economy and the Global Crisis »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2011/212

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Trung Bui , and Tamim Bayoumi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463902308.001

ISBN: 9781463902308

Keywords: Financial linkages, financial regulation, banking, bonds, bond, banking systems, financial market, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation, General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation,

The financial crisis, originated from the collapse of US housing markets in 2008, reverberates around the world. Its destructive force was felt nowhere more keenly than Western Europe. Indeed, it continues to mire...