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The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy*

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy* »

Source: The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

Volume/Issue: 2012/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi , and Maziar Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2012

ISBN: 9781475597158

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, exporting countries, Time-Series Models

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-dr...

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles*

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles* »

Source: The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

Volume/Issue: 2012/255

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 October 2012

ISBN: 9781475581645

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, macroeconomic shocks, international business cycle, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, oil exports, reer

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GD...

Oil Prices and the Global Economy

Oil Prices and the Global Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2017/15

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rabah Arezki , Zoltan Jakab , Douglas Laxton , Akito Matsumoto , Armen Nurbekyan , Hou Wang , and Jiaxiong Yao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 January 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475572360.001

ISBN: 9781475572360

Keywords: Oil prices, Oil sector, Supply and demand, Oil production, Econometric models, Oil market; macroeconomic model; depletion; consumption efficiency; technology; cycle.

This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such...

A Barrel of Oil or a Bottle of Wine
			: How Do Global Growth Dynamics Affect Commodity Prices?

A Barrel of Oil or a Bottle of Wine : How Do Global Growth Dynamics Affect Commodity Prices? »

Volume/Issue: 2011/1

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tahsin Saadi Sedik , and Serhan Cevik

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455211791.001

ISBN: 9781455211791

Keywords: Wine, Comovement, Global growth, Emerging economies, crude oil, oil demand, Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Other, Energy: Demand and Supply, Energy and the Macroeconomy,

This paper investigates the causes of extreme fluctuations in commodity prices from 1990 to 2010. Analyzing two very distinct commodities-crude oil and fine wine, we find that macroeconomic factors are the main det...

Oil Prices and the Global Economy
			: Is It Different This Time Around?

Oil Prices and the Global Economy : Is It Different This Time Around? »

Volume/Issue: 2016/210

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kamiar Mohaddes , and M. Pesaran

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475552034.001

ISBN: 9781475552034

Keywords: Economic growth, Markets, Oil, Oil prices, United States, Western Hemisphere, Econometric models, Supply and demand, Vector autoregression, Equity prices

The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the United States and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econ...

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2012/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi , and Maziar Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475597158.001

ISBN: 9781475597158

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, exporting countries, Time-Series Models

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-dr...

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles »

Volume/Issue: 2012/255

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 October 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475581645.001

ISBN: 9781475581645

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, macroeconomic shocks, international business cycle, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, oil exports, reer

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GD...

Oil Prices and the Global Economy

Oil Prices and the Global Economy »

Source: Oil Prices and the Global Economy : Is It Different This Time Around?

Volume/Issue: 2016/210

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kamiar Mohaddes , and M. Pesaran

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2016

ISBN: 9781475552034

Keywords: Economic growth, Markets, Oil, Oil prices, United States, Western Hemisphere, Econometric models, Supply and demand, Vector autoregression, Equity prices

The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the United States and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econ...

Oil Prices and the Global Economy

Oil Prices and the Global Economy »

Source: Oil Prices and the Global Economy

Volume/Issue: 2017/15

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rabah Arezki , Zoltan Jakab , Douglas Laxton , Akito Matsumoto , Armen Nurbekyan , Hou Wang , and Jiaxiong Yao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 January 2017

ISBN: 9781475572360

Keywords: Oil prices, Oil sector, Supply and demand, Oil production, Econometric models, Oil market; macroeconomic model; depletion; consumption efficiency; technology; cycle.

This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such...

1. Outlook for the Global Oil Market and the Implications for Saudi Arabia

1. Outlook for the Global Oil Market and the Implications for Saudi Arabia »

Source: Saudi Arabia : Tackling Emerging Economic Challenges to Sustain Strong Growth

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Ahmed Al-Darwish , Naif Alghaith , Alberto Behar , Tim Callen , Pragyan Deb , Amgad Hegazy , Padamja Khandelwal , Malika Pant , and Haonan Qu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 March 2015

ISBN: 9781498323079

Keywords: Export diversification, Commodity markets, Economic growth, Budgets, Fiscal rules, Fiscal policy, Macroprudential Policy, Nonoil sector, Monetary policy, Oil revenues

A number of factors are likely to affect the global oil market in the coming years, including the strength of the global recovery, the path of oil production in the United States, and the extent of supply ou...