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Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective

Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective »

Source: Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective

Volume/Issue: 2010/261

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomas Helbling , Ayhan Kose , Christopher Otrok , and Raju Huidrom

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

ISBN: 9781455209613

Keywords: credit spreads, macroeconomic fluctuations, global recession, recession, recessions, global recessions, financial markets, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, Open Economy Macroeconomics

This paper examines the importance of credit market shocks in driving global business cycles over the period 1988:1-2009:4. We first estimate common components in various macroeconomic and financial variables of th...

Global Business Cycles

Global Business Cycles »

Source: Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling?

Volume/Issue: 2008/143

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ayhan Kose , Eswar Prasad , and Christopher Otrok

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2008

ISBN: 9781451870015

Keywords: macroeconomic fluctuations, convergence, decoupling, business cycle, globalization period, business cycle fluctuations,

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets,...

Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring

Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring »

Source: Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring

Volume/Issue: 2011/25

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): S. Boragan Aruoba , Marco Terrones , Ayhan Kose , and Francis Diebold

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2011

ISBN: 9781455216727

Keywords: Expansion, Contraction, Recession, Turning Point, Dynamic factor model, Nowcasting, Real-time analysis, business cycle, business cycles, correlations

We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observati...

How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?

How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles? »

Source: How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?

Volume/Issue: 2003/27

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ayhan Kose , Eswar Prasad , and Marco Terrones

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 March 2003

ISBN: 9781451844542

Keywords: Macroeconomic fluctuations, trade and financial integration, output and consumption comovement, correlations, financial integration, capital flows, correlation, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Policy Coordination and Transmission,

This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at best limited su...

Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective

Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective »

Volume/Issue: 2010/261

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomas Helbling , Ayhan Kose , Christopher Otrok , and Raju Huidrom

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455209613.001

ISBN: 9781455209613

Keywords: credit spreads, macroeconomic fluctuations, global recession, recession, recessions, global recessions, financial markets, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, Open Economy Macroeconomics

This paper examines the importance of credit market shocks in driving global business cycles over the period 1988:1-2009:4. We first estimate common components in various macroeconomic and financial variables of th...

Global Business Cycles
			: Convergence or Decoupling?

Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling? »

Volume/Issue: 2008/143

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ayhan Kose , Eswar Prasad , and Christopher Otrok

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451870015.001

ISBN: 9781451870015

Keywords: macroeconomic fluctuations, convergence, decoupling, business cycle, globalization period, business cycle fluctuations,

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets,...

Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring

Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring »

Volume/Issue: 2011/25

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): S. Boragan Aruoba , Marco Terrones , Ayhan Kose , and Francis Diebold

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455216727.001

ISBN: 9781455216727

Keywords: Expansion, Contraction, Recession, Turning Point, Dynamic factor model, Nowcasting, Real-time analysis, business cycle, business cycles, correlations

We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observati...

How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?

How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles? »

Volume/Issue: 2003/27

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ayhan Kose , Eswar Prasad , and Marco Terrones

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 March 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451844542.001

ISBN: 9781451844542

Keywords: Macroeconomic fluctuations, trade and financial integration, output and consumption comovement, correlations, financial integration, capital flows, correlation, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Policy Coordination and Transmission,

This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at best limited su...

The Impact of External Indebtednesson Poverty in Low-Income Countries

The Impact of External Indebtednesson Poverty in Low-Income Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2003/61

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kadima Kalonji , Boileau Loko , Raj Nallari , and Montfort Mlachila

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451848199.001

ISBN: 9781451848199

Keywords: Growth, mortality rate, life expectancy, debt service, infant mortality, International Lending and Debt Problems, Welfare and Poverty, Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Growth and Fluctuations,

This paper explores the relationship between external debt and poverty. A number of observers have argued that high external indebtedness is a major cause of poverty. Using the first-differenced general method of m...

Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy
			: An Empirical Exploration

Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy : An Empirical Exploration »

Volume/Issue: 2003/246

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ayhan Kose , Marco Terrones , and Eswar Prasad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451875874.001

ISBN: 9781451875874

Keywords: macroeconomic fluctuations, volatility, correlations, globalization period, business cycle, growth rates, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, International Factor Movements and International Business,

This paper analyzes the evolution of volatility and cross-country comovement in output, consumption, and investment fluctuations using two distinct datasets. The results suggest that there has been a significant de...