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Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model1

Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model1 »

Source: Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model

Volume/Issue: 2009/85

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2009

ISBN: 9781451872323

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Bayesian Estimation, inflation, equation, forecasting, real interest rate,

This is the fourth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which e...

The African Continental Free Trade Area: Potential Economic Impact and Challenges

The African Continental Free Trade Area: Potential Economic Impact and Challenges »

Source: The African Continental Free Trade Area: Potential Economic Impact and Challenges

Volume/Issue: 2020/4

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Lisandro Abrego , Mario de Zamaroczy , Tunc Gursoy , Garth Nicholls , Hector Perez-Saiz , and Jose-Nicolas Rosas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 May 2020

ISBN: 9781513542379

Keywords: General equilibrium models, Trade barriers, Structural adjustment, Welfare, Forecasting models, Trade negotiations, Economic integration, Open economies, International trade agreements, Trade finance

Political momentum towards Africa-wide free trade has been intensifying. In March 2018, over 40 countries signed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. Once fully implemented, the AfCFTA is exp...

Chapter 3 Challenges for Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets as Global Financial Conditions Normalize

Chapter 3 Challenges for Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets as Global Financial Conditions Normalize »

Source: World Economic Outlook, October 2018 : Challenges to Steady Growth

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 October 2018

ISBN: 9781484376799

Keywords: Inflation rates, Inflation, Inflation targeting, Inflation research, Inflation risk, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Gross domestric product growth, Output growth, Global Financial Stability Risks, International trade

Inflation in emerging market and developing economies since the mid-2000s has, on average, been low and stable. This chapter investigates whether these recent gains in inflation performance are...

Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies

Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies »

Source: World Economic Outlook, October 2018 : Challenges to Steady Growth

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 October 2018

ISBN: 9781484376799

Keywords: Inflation rates, Inflation, Inflation targeting, Inflation research, Inflation risk, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Gross domestric product growth, Output growth, Global Financial Stability Risks, International trade

Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth...

Chapter 2: The Global Economic Recovery 10 Years After the 2008 Financial Meltdown

Chapter 2: The Global Economic Recovery 10 Years After the 2008 Financial Meltdown »

Source: World Economic Outlook, October 2018 : Challenges to Steady Growth

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 October 2018

ISBN: 9781484376799

Keywords: Inflation rates, Inflation, Inflation targeting, Inflation research, Inflation risk, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Gross domestric product growth, Output growth, Global Financial Stability Risks, International trade

This chapter takes stock of the global economic recovery a decade after the 2008 financial crisis. Output losses after the crisis appear to be persistent, irrespective of whether a country suffe...

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy*

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy* »

Source: The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

Volume/Issue: 2012/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi , and Maziar Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2012

ISBN: 9781475597158

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, exporting countries, Time-Series Models

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-dr...

Does Global Liquidity Matter for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?

Does Global Liquidity Matter for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area? »

Source: Does Global Liquidity Matter for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?

Volume/Issue: 2009/17

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Helge Berger , and Thomas Harjes

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2009

ISBN: 9781451871647

Keywords: Global excess liquidity, interest rate channel, forecasting accuracy, price level, money stock, monetary aggregates,

Global excess liquidity is sometimes believed to limit sovereign monetary policy even in large economies, including the euro area. There is much discussion about what constitutes global excess liquidity and our app...

The Domestic and Global Impact of Japan's Policies for Growth

The Domestic and Global Impact of Japan's Policies for Growth »

Source: The Domestic and Global Impact of Japan's Policies for Growth

Volume/Issue: 2005/209

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nicoletta Batini , Alessandro Rebucci , and Papa N'Diaye

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2005

ISBN: 9781451862287

Keywords: Global External Imbalance, Productivity Growth, Macroeconomic Models, current account, world economy, government debt, current account surplus, intermediate goods, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Japan is facing a sizable fiscal imbalance against a backdrop of weak trend growth and growing external imbalances in the world economy. This paper examines the possible impact of fiscal adjustment and productivity...

Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia

Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia »

Source: Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia

Volume/Issue: 2014/80

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alberto Behar , and Jaime Espinosa-Bowen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2014

ISBN: 9781484380796

Keywords: Gravity model, Caucasus, oil exports, oil exporters, exporters, services exports, exporter, Trade Forecasting and Simulation, International Business Cycles,

This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with r...

The Flexible System of Global Models – FSGM

The Flexible System of Global Models – FSGM »

Source: The Flexible System of Global Models - FSGM

Volume/Issue: 2015/64

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michal Andrle , Patrick Blagrave , Pedro Espaillat , Keiko Honjo , Benjamin Hunt , Mika Kortelainen , René Lalonde , Douglas Laxton , Eleonara Mavroeidi , Dirk Muir , Susanna Mursula , and Stephen Snudden

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 March 2015

ISBN: 9781475518665

Keywords: dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, macroeconomic interdependence, consumption, investment, demand, trade, potential output, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments

The Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) is a group of models developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis. A typical module of FSGM is a multi-region, forward-looking semi-structur...