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Regional Economic Outlook, May 2018, Europe

Managing the Upswing in Uncertain Times

The Spring EUR REO projects the economic outlook for the region for the next six months.

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department

Seizing the Momentum

The Spring 2018 WHD REO projects the economic outlook for the region over the next six months.

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2018
			: A Bumpy Road Ahead

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2018 : A Bumpy Road Ahead »

Series: Global Financial Stability Report

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338292.082

ISBN: 9781484338292

Keywords: Global Financial Stability Report, Global Financial Stability Report, global financial stability, crypto assets, financial risks, risks to growth, financial vulnerabilities

The April 2018 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) finds that short-term risks to financial stability have increased somewhat since the previous GFSR. Medium-term risks are still elevated as financial vulnera...

The Global Macrofinancial Model

The Global Macrofinancial Model »

Volume/Issue: 2018/81

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484350706.001

ISBN: 9781484350706

Keywords: Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; Macroprudential policy; Spillovers; Forecasting; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model; World economy

This paper documents the theoretical structure and empirical properties of the latest version of the Global Macrofinancial Model (GFM). This dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the world economy, disagg...

Understanding the Macro-Financial Effects of Household Debt: A Global Perspective

Understanding the Macro-Financial Effects of Household Debt: A Global Perspective »

Volume/Issue: 2018/76

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Adrian Alter , Alan Xiaochen Feng , and Nico Valckx

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484349861.001

ISBN: 9781484349861

Keywords: Household debt; financial crises; neglected crash risk; leverage; macro-financial stability, Household debt, financial crises, neglected crash risk, leverage, macro-financial stability, Forecasting and Simulation, General

We confirm the negative relationship between household debt and future GDP growth documented in Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) for a wider set of countries over the period 1950-2016. Three mutually reinforcing mecha...

The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Financial Globalization: Evidence from Macro and Sectoral Data

The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Financial Globalization: Evidence from Macro and Sectoral Data »

Volume/Issue: 2018/83

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Davide Furceri , Prakash Loungani , and Jonathan Ostry

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484350898.001

ISBN: 9781484350898

Keywords: Globalization, Inequality, Capital Account Openness, Crises, Institutions

We take a fresh look at the aggregate and distributional effects of policies to liberalize international capital flows-financial globalization. Both country- and industry-level results suggest that such policies ha...

Globalization and the New Normal

Globalization and the New Normal »

Volume/Issue: 2018/75

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alina Carare , Bertrand Candelon , Jean-Baptiste Hasse , and Jing Lu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484350645.001

ISBN: 9781484350645

Keywords: New Normal, Globalization, Financial crises, Banking crises, Output growth

This study expands the empirical specification of Cerra and Saxena (2008), and allows short-term output growth regimes to be determined by globalization. Relying on a non-linear dynamic panel representation, it rec...

The Distribution of Gains from Globalization

The Distribution of Gains from Globalization »

Volume/Issue: 2018/54

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Valentin Lang , and Marina Mendes Tavares

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484347065.001

ISBN: 9781484347065

Keywords: Globalization, Growth, Inequality, Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts, Globalization: Economic Development

We study economic globalization as a multidimensional process and investigate its effect on incomes. In a panel of 147 countries during 1970-2014, we apply a new instrumental variable, exploiting globalization's ge...

Financial Development and Inclusion in the Caribbean

Financial Development and Inclusion in the Caribbean »

Volume/Issue: 2018/53

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Chuan Li , and Joyce Wong

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484345306.001

ISBN: 9781484345306

Keywords: Caribbean, Financial systems, Jamaica, Latin America, Western Hemisphere, Financial inclusion, Financial Development, General, Government Policy and Regulation, General

Many Caribbean financial systems are relatively well developed for their size but benefits are concentrated in a small part of the population. In several large countries, the financial development levels are below...

What is Driving Women's Financial Inclusion Across Countries?

What is Driving Women's Financial Inclusion Across Countries? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/38

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Corinne Delechat , Monique Newiak , Rui Xu , Fan Yang , and Goksu Aslan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 March 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484344460.001

ISBN: 9781484344460

Keywords: Financial inclusion, Gender, Personal finance, Legal rights, Government Policy and Regulation, Economics of Gender

Using a broad set of macroeconomic country characteristics to supplement a new and comprehensive micro-level dataset for 140 countries, we identify structural factors, policies, and individual characteristics that...

Household Credit, Global Financial Cycle, and Macroprudential Policies
			: Credit Register Evidence from an Emerging Country

Household Credit, Global Financial Cycle, and Macroprudential Policies : Credit Register Evidence from an Emerging Country »

Volume/Issue: 2018/13

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mircea Epure , Irina Mihai , Camelia Minoiu , and José-Luis Peydró

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338599.001

ISBN: 9781484338599

Keywords: Household credit, Romania, Europe, Central banks and their policies, macroprudential policies, global financial cycle, cross-border spillovers, General

We analyze the effects of macroprudential policies on local bank credit cycles and interactions with international financial conditions. For identification, we exploit the comprehensive credit register containing a...

Can Countries Manage Their Financial Conditions Amid Globalization?

Can Countries Manage Their Financial Conditions Amid Globalization? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/15

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nicolas Arregui , Selim Elekdag , R. Gelos , Romain Lafarguette , and Dulani Seneviratne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338612.001

ISBN: 9781484338612

Keywords: Monetary policy, Financial conditions, international policy transmission, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, General, General, General

This paper examines the evolving importance of common global components underlying domestic financial conditions. It develops financial conditions indices (FCIs) that make it possible to compare a large set of adva...